Serie A · Regular Season - 31
Botafogo 1–0 Chapecoense-sc
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
BotafogoTeam 1897Chapecoense-scTeam 1680We gave Botafogo 66% to win: they did.
- Tiquinho Soares – assist Matheus Martins –7'Botafogo:Tiquinho Soares – assist Matheus Martins –
- 14'Kauan Faria –Chapecoense-sc:Kauan Faria –
- 45'Yannick Bolasie – for Fernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior –Chapecoense-sc:Yannick Bolasie – for Fernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior –
- Cristian Medina – for Hakim Ziyech –55'Botafogo:Cristian Medina – for Hakim Ziyech –
- 62'Rodrigo – for Tulio Eduardo Silva De OliveiraChapecoense-sc:Rodrigo – for Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira
- 62'Max – for Giovanni Augusto –Chapecoense-sc:Max – for Giovanni Augusto –
- domingos andrade – for Allan –65'Botafogo:domingos andrade – for Allan –
- Danilo – for Tiquinho Soares –66'Botafogo:Danilo – for Tiquinho Soares –
- Júnior Santos – for Matheus Martins –76'Botafogo:Júnior Santos – for Matheus Martins –
- Kauan Toledo – for Álvaro Montoro –76'Botafogo:Kauan Toledo – for Álvaro Montoro –
- 82'Luis Eduardo Marques dos Santos – for Bruno Nunes De Barros –Chapecoense-sc:Luis Eduardo Marques dos Santos – for Bruno Nunes De Barros –
- 88'F. Rossi – for Camilo Reijers de Oliveira –Chapecoense-sc:F. Rossi – for Camilo Reijers de Oliveira –
Before kick-off (provisional): 66% · 21% · 14%(Botafogo · draw · Chapecoense-sc)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%); the result 1–0 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Botafogo €4.3M, Chapecoense-sc €611K.
- Botafogo were without 1 expected starter: L. Monzón (1762).
- Chapecoense-sc were without 1 expected starter: Marcinho (1783).
- João Paulo (Chapecoense-sc) had not played for over 90 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Botafogo
13th in Série A · 36 pts from 30
- 12 OctDCoritiba Brazil Serie A1892
- 7 OctLVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A1943
- 19 SepLMirassol Brazil Serie A1938
- 16 SepWGremio Brazil Serie A1879
- 12 SepDRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A1889
Chapecoense-sc
20th in Série A · 18 pts from 29
- 7 OctLVitoria Brazil Serie A1711
- 19 SepDAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1703
- 6 SepWCorinthians Brazil Serie A1663
- 30 AugLGremio Brazil Serie A1633
- 23 AugWSao Paulo Brazil Serie A1602
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 36 /30 | 47.5 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 11th |
| Chapecoense-sc | 18 /29 | 24.5 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Botafogo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 1968
Chapecoense-sc · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1592
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Botafogo: balanced profile (how Adenor Leonardo Bacchi plays) · Chapecoense-sc: balanced profile (how Rafael dos Santos Lacerda plays)