Serie A · Regular Season - 34
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Botafogo host Atletico-MG on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Botafogo 39%, draw 29%, Atletico-MG 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Botafogo €5.4M, Atletico-MG €3.0M.
- Home advantage makes Botafogo the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Botafogo goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Botafogo 1888 · Atletico-MG 1992
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Botafogo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Good) · Elo 1981
Atletico-MG · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.7 (Good) · Elo 2065
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Botafogo
11th in Série A · 39 pts from 31
- 17 OctWChapecoense-SC Brazil Serie A1855
- 12 OctDCoritiba Brazil Serie A1892
- 7 OctLVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A1943
- 19 SepLMirassol Brazil Serie A1938
- 16 SepWGremio Brazil Serie A1879
Atletico-MG
6th in Série A · 50 pts from 31
- 21 OctLAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana2059
- 17 OctWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1946
- 14 OctWAtletico Torque Copa Sudamericana2046
- 11 OctWSantos Brazil Serie A1978
- 8 OctDAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A2031
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 39 /31 | 48.1 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 11th |
| Atletico-MG | 50 /31 | 59.8 | 0% | 26% | 0% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Botafogo: balanced profile (how Tite plays) · Atletico-MG: possession-based (how E. Domínguez plays)