Serie B · Regular Season - 36
Botafogo SP vs Sport Recife
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto
Botafogo SP host Sport Recife on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Botafogo SP 36%, draw 29%, Sport Recife 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Botafogo SP €320K, Sport Recife €733K.
- Home advantage makes Botafogo SP the favourite here: it adds 11 points to their win chance.
- Botafogo SP's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.2 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Botafogo SP's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Botafogo SP goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Botafogo SP 1594 · Sport Recife 1717
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Botafogo SP · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1687
Sport Recife · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1811
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Botafogo SP
13th in Serie B · 44 pts from 34
- 18 OctWCRB Brazil Serie B1558
- 13 OctWCeara Brazil Serie B1579
- 7 OctWOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1534
- 3 OctLVila Nova Brazil Serie B1582
- 29 SepWPonte Preta Brazil Serie B1574
Sport Recife
8th in Serie B · 51 pts from 34
- 16 OctLFortaleza EC Brazil Serie B1732
- 11 OctDAtletico Goianiense Brazil Serie B1726
- 6 OctWSão Bernardo Brazil Serie B1710
- 1 OctWAthletic Club Brazil Serie B1680
- 26 SepLNautico Recife Brazil Serie B1710
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP | 44 /34 | 49.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14th |
| Sport Recife | 51 /34 | 57.2 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Botafogo SP: balanced profile (how Cláudio Aparecido Tencati plays) · Sport Recife: balanced profile (how Mariano Andrés Soso plays)