Serie B · Regular Season - 33
Botafogo SP 1–0 Ceara
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto
Botafogo SPTeam 1570CearaTeam 1673- Hygor 74'
We gave Botafogo SP 38% to win: they did.
- Morelli –44'Botafogo SP:Morelli –
- Marco Antonio de Freitas Batistussi – for Matheus Sales –59'Botafogo SP:Marco Antonio de Freitas Batistussi – for Matheus Sales –
- 66'Luiz Otávio –Ceara:Luiz Otávio –
- 72'Rian Santana for Enzo LodovicoCeara:Rian Santana for Enzo Lodovico
- 72'Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli – for Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira –Ceara:Lenny Ivo Lobato Romanelli – for Melquisedeque Costa De Oliveira –
- José Hugo Sousa dos Santos – for Kelvin Giacobe·Alves dos Santos –73'Botafogo SP:José Hugo Sousa dos Santos – for Kelvin Giacobe·Alves dos Santos –
- Pedro Henrique – for Gabriel de Souza Inocencio –73'Botafogo SP:Pedro Henrique – for Gabriel de Souza Inocencio –
- Hygor –74'Botafogo SP:Hygor –
- 78'Renzo López – for Matheus Araujo –Ceara:Renzo López – for Matheus Araujo –
- 83'Rafael Ramos – for Julio Cesar –Ceara:Rafael Ramos – for Julio Cesar –
- 83'Lucas Mugni – for Vinicius Zanocelo –Ceara:Lucas Mugni – for Vinicius Zanocelo –
- Arthur Caíke – for Hygor –83'Botafogo SP:Arthur Caíke – for Hygor –
- Hebert Willian Badaro Oliveira – for Rafael Gava –84'Botafogo SP:Hebert Willian Badaro Oliveira – for Rafael Gava –
- 90+4'João Gabriel Santos Batista –Ceara:João Gabriel Santos Batista –
Before kick-off (provisional): 38% · 29% · 33%(Botafogo SP · draw · Ceara)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–0 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Botafogo SP €314K, Ceara €565K.
- Home advantage made Botafogo SP the favourite: it added 11 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in attacking (Serie B): Botafogo SP ranked #22 of 24, Ceara #4.
- Ceara were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Botafogo SP
16th in Serie B · 38 pts from 32
- 7 OctWOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1534
- 3 OctLVila Nova Brazil Serie B1582
- 29 SepWPonte Preta Brazil Serie B1574
- 19 SepDAthletic Club Brazil Serie B1544
- 14 SepLGoias Brazil Serie B1559
Ceara
14th in Serie B · 42 pts from 32
- 8 OctWCriciuma Brazil Serie B1650
- 3 OctWAvai Brazil Serie B1629
- 26 SepDOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1662
- 18 SepWNovorizontino Brazil Serie B1637
- 13 SepDFortaleza EC Brazil Serie B1636
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP | 38 /32 | 45.2 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 16th |
| Ceara | 42 /32 | 50.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Botafogo SP · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.2 (Average) · Elo 1629
Ceara · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Average) · Elo 1764
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Botafogo SP: balanced profile (how Cláudio Aparecido Tencati plays) · Ceara: direct (how Daniel Pollo Barioni plays)