Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5
Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:30 UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Borussia DortmundTeam 2299Werder BremenTeam 1993We gave Borussia Dortmund 67% to win: it ended in a draw.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 67% · 19% · 13%(Borussia Dortmund · draw · Werder Bremen)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (10%); the result 2–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Borussia Dortmund €33.0M, Werder Bremen €6.6M.
- Bundesliga: G. Kobel was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2493).
- Borussia Dortmund had won their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Borussia Dortmund
1st in Bundesliga · 12 pts from 4
- 19 SepWVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga2361
- 12 SepWSC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga2306
- 8 SepWVillarreal UEFA Champions League2324
- 5 SepW1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga2255
- 29 AugWHamburger SV Bundesliga2280
Werder Bremen
8th in Bundesliga · 7 pts from 4
- 19 SepWFC Augsburg Bundesliga2004
- 12 SepD1. FC Köln Bundesliga2004
- 5 SepWRB Leipzig Bundesliga1956
- 30 AugLSC Freiburg Bundesliga1928
- 22 AugWLüneburger SK Hansa Germany DFB Pokal1976
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 12 /4 | 67.6 | 7% | 93% | 0% | 2nd |
| Werder Bremen | 7 /4 | 43.9 | 0% | 3% | 5% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Borussia Dortmund · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2286
Werder Bremen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2154
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Borussia Dortmund: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Niko Kovač plays) · Werder Bremen: balanced profile (how Daniel Moustapha Thioune plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.