Championship · Regular Season - 12
Bolton vs Middlesbrough
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
Bolton host Middlesbrough on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Championship); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bolton 31%, draw 29%, Middlesbrough 40%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bolton €1.3M, Middlesbrough €4.3M.
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bolton goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–17%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: Bolton 1928 · Middlesbrough 2067
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bolton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1987
Middlesbrough · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 2030
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bolton
15th in Championship · 14 pts from 11
- 17 OctDSouthampton England Championship1936
- 13 OctWWolves England Championship1905
- 10 OctLStoke City England Championship1912
- 20 SepWNorwich England Championship1870
- 12 SepWCardiff England Championship1850
Middlesbrough
3rd in Championship · 22 pts from 11
- 17 OctDCardiff England Championship2070
- 13 OctWStoke City England Championship2054
- 10 OctWWolves England Championship2042
- 19 SepDBirmingham England Championship2012
- 15 SepDMillwall England Championship2032
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 14 /11 | 58.8 | 0% | 1% | 7% | 15th |
| Middlesbrough | 22 /11 | 77.6 | 10% | 59% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bolton: possession-based · creative (how Steven Schumacher plays) · Middlesbrough: possession-based (how Kim Alexander Hellberg plays)