Primera División · Apertura - 23
Bolívar vs Universitario de Vinto
Tue 27 Oct 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz
Bolívar host Universitario de Vinto on Tue 27 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bolívar 77%, draw 15%, Universitario de Vinto 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bolívar €535K, Universitario de Vinto €145K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the Primera División Apertura - 23: 437 points.
- Draw chance 15%, below the Primera División average of 26% this round.
- Primera División: X. Arreaga is the highest-rated defender (1812).
- Bolívar's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bolívar goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–19%
- 3–18%
- 1–17%
- 1–07%
- Other scores49%
Team Elo: Bolívar 1742 · Universitario de Vinto 1305
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bolívar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Elite) · Elo 1795
Universitario de Vinto · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1427
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bolívar
1st in Primera División · 51 pts from 22
- 18 OctWNacional Potosí Bolivia Primera Division1732
- 11 OctWBlooming Bolivia Primera Division1720
- 18 SepWGualberto Villarroel SJ Bolivia Primera Division1722
- 14 SepWReal Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division1716
- 6 SepWIndependiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division1704
Universitario de Vinto
12th in Primera División · 21 pts from 22
- 17 OctWSan Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division1253
- 10 OctLReal Oruro Bolivia Primera Division1270
- 17 SepDBlooming Bolivia Primera Division1273
- 13 SepWIndependiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division1293
- 4 SepLABB Bolivia Primera Division1242
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolívar | 51 /22 | 62.9 | 74% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Universitario de Vinto | 21 /22 | 26.4 | 0% | 0% | 66% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bolívar: possession-based · creative (how Alejandro Restrepo Mazo plays) · Universitario de Vinto: balanced profile (how Marcelo Straccia plays)