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Championship · Regular Season - 9

Blackburn 2–1 Cardiff

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Ewood Park, Blackburn

Blackburn crestBlackburnTeam 1852
2–1
Full time
HT 2–0
Cardiff crestCardiffTeam 1948

Match story

Blackburn · draw · Cardiff

Before kick-off: 35% · 28% · 37%

Live chances: Blackburn 100%, draw 0%, Cardiff 0% at 90+7'2' · 0–0 · Blackburn 35%, draw 28%, Cardiff 37%3' · 0–0 · Blackburn 35%, draw 28%, Cardiff 37%4' · 0–0 · Blackburn 35%, draw 28%, Cardiff 37%5' · 0–0 · Blackburn 35%, draw 28%, Cardiff 37%6' · 0–0 · Blackburn 35%, draw 28%, Cardiff 37%7' · 0–0 · Blackburn 34%, draw 28%, Cardiff 37%8' · 0–0 · Blackburn 34%, draw 29%, Cardiff 37%9' · 0–0 · Blackburn 34%, draw 29%, Cardiff 37%10' · 0–0 · Blackburn 34%, draw 29%, Cardiff 37%11' · 0–0 · Blackburn 34%, draw 29%, Cardiff 37%12' · 0–0 · Blackburn 34%, draw 29%, Cardiff 37%14' · 0–0 · Blackburn 34%, draw 30%, Cardiff 36%15' · 0–0 · Blackburn 34%, draw 30%, Cardiff 36%17' · 0–0 · Blackburn 34%, draw 30%, Cardiff 36%18' · 0–0 · Blackburn 34%, draw 30%, Cardiff 36%19' · 0–0 · Blackburn 34%, draw 30%, Cardiff 36%20' · 0–0 · Blackburn 34%, draw 31%, Cardiff 36%21' · 0–0 · Blackburn 33%, draw 31%, Cardiff 36%22' · 0–0 · Blackburn 33%, draw 31%, Cardiff 36%23' · 0–0 · Blackburn 33%, draw 31%, Cardiff 36%24' · 0–0 · Blackburn 33%, draw 31%, Cardiff 35%25' · 0–0 · Blackburn 33%, draw 32%, Cardiff 35%26' · 0–0 · Blackburn 33%, draw 32%, Cardiff 35%27' · 0–0 · Blackburn 33%, draw 32%, Cardiff 35%28' · 0–0 · Blackburn 33%, draw 32%, Cardiff 35%29' · 1–0 · Blackburn 65%, draw 22%, Cardiff 13%30' · 1–0 · Blackburn 65%, draw 22%, Cardiff 13%31' · 1–0 · Blackburn 65%, draw 23%, Cardiff 13%32' · 1–0 · Blackburn 65%, draw 23%, Cardiff 12%33' · 1–0 · Blackburn 65%, draw 23%, Cardiff 12%35' · 1–0 · Blackburn 65%, draw 23%, Cardiff 12%36' · 1–0 · Blackburn 66%, draw 23%, Cardiff 12%37' · 1–0 · Blackburn 66%, draw 23%, Cardiff 12%38' · 1–0 · Blackburn 66%, draw 23%, Cardiff 11%39' · 1–0 · Blackburn 66%, draw 23%, Cardiff 11%40' · 2–0 · Blackburn 90%, draw 7%, Cardiff 2%41' · 2–0 · Blackburn 91%, draw 7%, Cardiff 2%42' · 2–0 · Blackburn 91%, draw 7%, Cardiff 2%43' · 2–0 · Blackburn 91%, draw 7%, Cardiff 2%44' · 2–0 · Blackburn 91%, draw 7%, Cardiff 2%45' · 2–0 · Blackburn 91%, draw 7%, Cardiff 2%45+1' · 2–0 · Blackburn 91%, draw 7%, Cardiff 2%45+2' · 2–0 · Blackburn 92%, draw 7%, Cardiff 2%45+4' · 2–0 · Blackburn 92%, draw 7%, Cardiff 2%45+5' · 2–0 · Blackburn 92%, draw 7%, Cardiff 2%HT · 2–0 · Blackburn 92%, draw 7%, Cardiff 2%46' · 2–0 · Blackburn 92%, draw 7%, Cardiff 2%47' · 2–0 · Blackburn 92%, draw 6%, Cardiff 2%48' · 2–0 · Blackburn 92%, draw 6%, Cardiff 2%49' · 2–0 · Blackburn 92%, draw 6%, Cardiff 1%50' · 2–0 · Blackburn 93%, draw 6%, Cardiff 1%51' · 2–0 · Blackburn 93%, draw 6%, Cardiff 1%52' · 2–0 · Blackburn 93%, draw 6%, Cardiff 1%53' · 2–0 · Blackburn 93%, draw 6%, Cardiff 1%54' · 2–1 · Blackburn 70%, draw 22%, Cardiff 8%55' · 2–1 · Blackburn 70%, draw 22%, Cardiff 7%56' · 2–1 · Blackburn 71%, draw 22%, Cardiff 7%57' · 2–1 · Blackburn 71%, draw 22%, Cardiff 7%58' · 2–1 · Blackburn 71%, draw 22%, Cardiff 7%59' · 2–1 · Blackburn 72%, draw 22%, Cardiff 7%60' · 2–1 · Blackburn 72%, draw 21%, Cardiff 6%61' · 2–1 · Blackburn 73%, draw 21%, Cardiff 6%62' · 2–1 · Blackburn 73%, draw 21%, Cardiff 6%63' · 2–1 · Blackburn 73%, draw 21%, Cardiff 6%64' · 2–1 · Blackburn 74%, draw 21%, Cardiff 5%65' · 2–1 · Blackburn 74%, draw 21%, Cardiff 5%66' · 2–1 · Blackburn 75%, draw 20%, Cardiff 5%67' · 2–1 · Blackburn 75%, draw 20%, Cardiff 5%68' · 2–1 · Blackburn 75%, draw 20%, Cardiff 5%69' · 2–1 · Blackburn 76%, draw 20%, Cardiff 4%70' · 2–1 · Blackburn 76%, draw 19%, Cardiff 4%71' · 2–1 · Blackburn 77%, draw 19%, Cardiff 4%72' · 2–1 · Blackburn 77%, draw 19%, Cardiff 4%73' · 2–1 · Blackburn 78%, draw 19%, Cardiff 3%74' · 2–1 · Blackburn 78%, draw 18%, Cardiff 3%75' · 2–1 · Blackburn 79%, draw 18%, Cardiff 3%76' · 2–1 · Blackburn 80%, draw 17%, Cardiff 3%77' · 2–1 · Blackburn 80%, draw 17%, Cardiff 3%78' · 2–1 · Blackburn 81%, draw 17%, Cardiff 2%79' · 2–1 · Blackburn 82%, draw 16%, Cardiff 2%80' · 2–1 · Blackburn 82%, draw 16%, Cardiff 2%81' · 2–1 · Blackburn 83%, draw 15%, Cardiff 2%82' · 2–1 · Blackburn 84%, draw 15%, Cardiff 2%83' · 2–1 · Blackburn 85%, draw 14%, Cardiff 1%84' · 2–1 · Blackburn 85%, draw 13%, Cardiff 1%85' · 2–1 · Blackburn 86%, draw 13%, Cardiff 1%86' · 2–1 · Blackburn 87%, draw 12%, Cardiff 1%87' · 2–1 · Blackburn 88%, draw 11%, Cardiff 1%88' · 2–1 · Blackburn 89%, draw 10%, Cardiff 1%89' · 2–1 · Blackburn 90%, draw 9%, Cardiff 1%90' · 2–1 · Blackburn 91%, draw 8%, Cardiff 0%90+1' · 2–1 · Blackburn 92%, draw 7%, Cardiff 0%90+2' · 2–1 · Blackburn 94%, draw 6%, Cardiff 0%90+3' · 2–1 · Blackburn 95%, draw 5%, Cardiff 0%90+4' · 2–1 · Blackburn 96%, draw 4%, Cardiff 0%90+5' · 2–1 · Blackburn 98%, draw 2%, Cardiff 0%90+6' · 2–1 · Blackburn 99%, draw 1%, Cardiff 0%90+7' · 2–1 · Blackburn 100%, draw 0%, Cardiff 0%

Last reading, 90+7': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Cardiff 37% to win: Blackburn won.

  1. 28'Blackburn:Andri Guðjohnsen 2004 +24
  2. 38'Blackburn:Todd Cantwell 1935 +35* assist Ryoya Morishita 1911 +23*
  3. 53'Cardiff:Callum Robinson 1776 −11* assist Jack Moylan 2031 −12
  4. 60'Cardiff:Christopher Willock 1899 −10* for C. Ashford 1933 −11*
  5. 63'Blackburn:Moussa·Baradji 1766 −1* for Andri Guðjohnsen 2004 +24
  6. 64'Blackburn:J. Fevrier 1831 −2* for Ryoya Morishita 1911 +23*
  7. 71'Cardiff:David Turnbull 1934 −9* for Joel Colwill 1922 −3
  8. 71'Cardiff:Isaak Davies 1772 −8* for Callum Robinson 1776 −11*
  9. 74'Blackburn:Augustus Kargbo 1605 −2* for Oladapo Afolayan 1911 +26*
  10. 78'Cardiff:Ronan Kpakio 1855 −8* for Joel Bagan 1933 −10
  11. 78'Cardiff:Calum Scanlon 1309 −8* for Dylan Lawlor 1960 −14*
  12. 83'Blackburn:Jake Garrett 1546 −5* for Kristi Montgomery 1796 +52*
  13. 90+6'Blackburn:Todd Cantwell 1935 +35*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

5-4-1Formations4-2-3-1
GN. Trott1942−26*
DP. Ng1931−15*
DG. Osho1949−15*
DD. Lawlor1960−14*
DJ. Bagan1933−10
MA. Robertson1944−14*
MJ. Colwill1922−3
MO. Tanner1916−12*
MJ. Moylan2031−12
MCian Ashford1933−11*
FC. Robinson1776−11*
CB. Barry-Murphy1916−16*
Before kick-off: 35% · 28% · 37%(Blackburn · draw · Cardiff)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 2–1 had 8%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Blackburn €2.1M, Cardiff €1.3M.
  • Blackburn were without 1 expected starter: Yuri Ribeiro (1795).
  • Cardiff were without 1 expected starter: K. Bielik (1876).
  • Home advantage made Blackburn the favourite: it added 7 points to their win chance.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Blackburn

16th in Championship · 9 pts from 8

  • 19 SepDPortsmouth 1872
  • 12 SepWMillwall 1829
  • 8 SepLSheffield Utd 1828
  • 5 SepLPreston 1832
  • 29 AugLQPR 1840

Cardiff

21st in Championship · 7 pts from 8

  • 19 SepWCharlton 1916
  • 12 SepLBolton 1927
  • 8 SepDStoke City 1928
  • 5 SepLPortsmouth 1952
  • 29 AugDSheffield Utd 1955

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Blackburn9 /851.00%<1%36%22nd
Cardiff7 /855.10%1%18%20th
Blackburn
Cardiff

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

R. Morishita
R. Morishita

Blackburn · +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1888

A. Robertson
A. Robertson

Cardiff · +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1957

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Tony Mowbray

Coach DNA: –

Brian Barry-Murphy

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Blackburn: balanced profile (how Tony Mowbray plays) · Cardiff: balanced profile (how Brian Barry-Murphy plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.