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Championship · Regular Season - 11

Birmingham 3–0 QPR

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham

Birmingham crestBirminghamTeam 2058
3–0
Full time
HT 1–0
QPR crestQPRTeam 1920

Match story

Birmingham · draw · QPR

Before kick-off: 53% · 26% · 21%

Live chances: Birmingham 100%, draw 0%, QPR 0% at 90+5'2' · 0–0 · Birmingham 53%, draw 26%, QPR 21%3' · 0–0 · Birmingham 53%, draw 26%, QPR 21%4' · 0–0 · Birmingham 53%, draw 26%, QPR 21%5' · 0–0 · Birmingham 53%, draw 26%, QPR 21%6' · 0–0 · Birmingham 52%, draw 26%, QPR 21%7' · 0–0 · Birmingham 52%, draw 27%, QPR 21%8' · 0–0 · Birmingham 52%, draw 27%, QPR 21%9' · 0–0 · Birmingham 52%, draw 27%, QPR 21%10' · 0–0 · Birmingham 52%, draw 27%, QPR 21%11' · 0–0 · Birmingham 52%, draw 27%, QPR 21%12' · 0–0 · Birmingham 51%, draw 27%, QPR 21%13' · 0–0 · Birmingham 51%, draw 27%, QPR 21%14' · 0–0 · Birmingham 51%, draw 28%, QPR 21%15' · 0–0 · Birmingham 51%, draw 28%, QPR 21%16' · 0–0 · Birmingham 51%, draw 28%, QPR 21%17' · 0–0 · Birmingham 50%, draw 28%, QPR 21%18' · 0–0 · Birmingham 50%, draw 28%, QPR 21%19' · 0–0 · Birmingham 50%, draw 28%, QPR 21%20' · 0–0 · Birmingham 50%, draw 29%, QPR 22%21' · 0–0 · Birmingham 50%, draw 29%, QPR 22%22' · 0–0 · Birmingham 49%, draw 29%, QPR 22%23' · 0–0 · Birmingham 49%, draw 29%, QPR 22%24' · 0–0 · Birmingham 49%, draw 29%, QPR 22%25' · 0–0 · Birmingham 49%, draw 30%, QPR 22%26' · 0–0 · Birmingham 49%, draw 30%, QPR 22%27' · 0–0 · Birmingham 48%, draw 30%, QPR 22%28' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 7%29' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 7%30' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 7%31' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 7%32' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 7%33' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 7%34' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 7%35' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 7%36' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 7%37' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 6%38' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 6%39' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 6%40' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 17%, QPR 6%41' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 18%, QPR 6%42' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 18%, QPR 6%43' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 18%, QPR 6%44' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 18%, QPR 6%45' · 1–0 · Birmingham 76%, draw 18%, QPR 6%45+1' · 1–0 · Birmingham 77%, draw 18%, QPR 6%HT · 1–0 · Birmingham 77%, draw 18%, QPR 6%46' · 1–0 · Birmingham 77%, draw 18%, QPR 6%48' · 1–0 · Birmingham 77%, draw 18%, QPR 5%49' · 1–0 · Birmingham 77%, draw 18%, QPR 5%50' · 2–0 · Birmingham 95%, draw 4%, QPR 1%51' · 2–0 · Birmingham 95%, draw 4%, QPR 1%52' · 2–0 · Birmingham 95%, draw 4%, QPR 1%53' · 2–0 · Birmingham 95%, draw 4%, QPR 1%54' · 2–0 · Birmingham 96%, draw 4%, QPR 1%55' · 2–0 · Birmingham 96%, draw 4%, QPR 1%56' · 2–0 · Birmingham 96%, draw 4%, QPR 1%57' · 2–0 · Birmingham 96%, draw 4%, QPR 1%58' · 2–0 · Birmingham 96%, draw 3%, QPR 1%59' · 2–0 · Birmingham 96%, draw 3%, QPR 0%60' · 2–0 · Birmingham 96%, draw 3%, QPR 0%61' · 2–0 · Birmingham 96%, draw 3%, QPR 0%62' · 2–0 · Birmingham 97%, draw 3%, QPR 0%63' · 2–0 · Birmingham 97%, draw 3%, QPR 0%64' · 2–0 · Birmingham 97%, draw 3%, QPR 0%65' · 2–0 · Birmingham 97%, draw 3%, QPR 0%66' · 2–0 · Birmingham 97%, draw 3%, QPR 0%67' · 2–0 · Birmingham 97%, draw 3%, QPR 0%68' · 2–0 · Birmingham 97%, draw 3%, QPR 0%69' · 2–0 · Birmingham 97%, draw 2%, QPR 0%71' · 2–0 · Birmingham 98%, draw 2%, QPR 0%72' · 2–0 · Birmingham 98%, draw 2%, QPR 0%73' · 2–0 · Birmingham 98%, draw 2%, QPR 0%74' · 2–0 · Birmingham 98%, draw 2%, QPR 0%75' · 2–0 · Birmingham 98%, draw 2%, QPR 0%76' · 2–0 · Birmingham 98%, draw 2%, QPR 0%77' · 2–0 · Birmingham 98%, draw 2%, QPR 0%78' · 2–0 · Birmingham 98%, draw 1%, QPR 0%79' · 2–0 · Birmingham 99%, draw 1%, QPR 0%80' · 2–0 · Birmingham 99%, draw 1%, QPR 0%81' · 2–0 · Birmingham 99%, draw 1%, QPR 0%82' · 2–0 · Birmingham 99%, draw 1%, QPR 0%83' · 2–0 · Birmingham 99%, draw 1%, QPR 0%84' · 2–0 · Birmingham 99%, draw 1%, QPR 0%85' · 2–0 · Birmingham 99%, draw 1%, QPR 0%86' · 2–0 · Birmingham 99%, draw 1%, QPR 0%87' · 2–0 · Birmingham 99%, draw 1%, QPR 0%88' · 2–0 · Birmingham 100%, draw 0%, QPR 0%89' · 2–0 · Birmingham 100%, draw 0%, QPR 0%90' · 2–0 · Birmingham 100%, draw 0%, QPR 0%90+1' · 2–0 · Birmingham 100%, draw 0%, QPR 0%90+2' · 3–0 · Birmingham 100%, draw 0%, QPR 0%90+3' · 3–0 · Birmingham 100%, draw 0%, QPR 0%90+4' · 3–0 · Birmingham 100%, draw 0%, QPR 0%90+5' · 3–0 · Birmingham 100%, draw 0%, QPR 0%

Last reading, 90+5': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Birmingham 53% to win: they did.

  1. 23'Birmingham:Jhon Elmer Solís Romero 1938 +13
  2. 27'Birmingham:Liam Millar 2080 +22 assist Tomoki Iwata 2062 +29
  3. 44'QPR:Harvey Vale 1947 0
  4. 49'Birmingham:Liam Millar 2080 +22 assist Tomoki Iwata 2062 +29
  5. 50'QPR:Rayan Jawad Kolli 1854 0
  6. 57'Birmingham:Max Bird 1922 +14 for Jhon Elmer Solís Romero 1938 +13
  7. 57'Birmingham:Carlos Vicente 2086 +3 for Patrick Roberts 2018 +20
  8. 62'QPR:Richard Kone 1963 0 for Rayan Jawad Kolli 1854 0
  9. 69'Birmingham:Christoph·Klarer 2138 +22
  10. 71'Birmingham:Demarai Gray 1979 +6 for Liam Millar 2080 +22
  11. 72'QPR:Jonathan Varane 1941 0 for Jake Clarke-Salter 1889 −1
  12. 81'QPR:Koki Saito 1903 −8* for Paul Smyth 1967 −2
  13. 81'QPR:Leon Scarlett for Glen Kamara 2003 −6
  14. 86'Birmingham:Luis Vasquez 2016 −6* for August Priske 1990 +13
  15. 90+1'Birmingham:Demarai Gray 1979 +6 assist Luis Vasquez 2016 −6*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GJ. Beadle2105+10
DB. Osayi-Samuel2134+7
DP. Neumann2132+21
DC. Klarer2138+22
DA. Cochrane2137+22
MT. Iwata2062+29
MJ. Solis1938+13
MP. Roberts2018+20
MJ. Stansfield2092+10
ML. Millar2080+22
FA. Priske1990+13
CC. Davies2097+18
GP. Charles2136−12
DK. Adamson17070
DJ. Dunne2019−6
DJ. Clarke-Salter1889−1
DB. Kemper1762−1
MG. Kamara2003−6
MR. Edwards2021−13
MP. Smyth1967−2
MH. Vale19470
MK. Poku18690
FRayan Jawad Kolli18540
CJulien Stéphan1994−5
Before kick-off: 53% · 26% · 21%(Birmingham · draw · QPR)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 3–0 had 6%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Birmingham €4.6M, QPR €2.5M.
  • QPR were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Birmingham

4th in Championship · 17 pts from 10

  • 13 OctWPreston 2036
  • 10 OctWWest Brom 2039
  • 19 SepDMiddlesbrough 2049
  • 12 SepWDerby 2024
  • 9 SepLNorwich 2030

QPR

5th in Championship · 17 pts from 10

  • 14 OctWDerby 1846
  • 9 OctDWest Ham 1886
  • 19 SepDPreston 1943
  • 12 SepDWest Brom 1921
  • 9 SepDCharlton 1873

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Birmingham17 /1072.74%33%<1%5th
QPR17 /1062.6<1%4%2%12th
Birmingham
QPR

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

L. Millar
L. Millar

Birmingham · +3.0 (Good) · Elo 2058

P. Charles
P. Charles

QPR · +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2148

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Chris Davies

Coach DNA: possession-based

Julien Stéphan

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Birmingham: possession-based (how Chris Davies plays) · QPR: balanced profile (how Julien Stéphan plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.