Championship · Regular Season - 10
Birmingham 4–0 Preston
Tue 13 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
BirminghamTeam 2019PrestonTeam 1789Match story
Birmingham · draw · PrestonBefore kick-off: 60% · 24% · 16%
Last reading, 90+3': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Liam Millar 34'
- August Priske 45+2', 45+4'
- Demarai Gray 76'
We gave Birmingham 60% to win: they did.
- 24'Delano Burgzorg 1881 −10 for Liam Gibbs 1846 −10*Preston:Delano Burgzorg 1881 −10 for Liam Gibbs 1846 −10*
- Liam Millar 2058 +16 assist Patrick Roberts 1998 +2434'Birmingham:Liam Millar 2058 +16 assist Patrick Roberts 1998 +24
- 45'Andrew Moran 1845 −13* for Callum Lang 1815 −5Preston:Andrew Moran 1845 −13* for Callum Lang 1815 −5
- August Priske 1977 +34 assist Alex Cochrane 2115 +1945+2'Birmingham:August Priske 1977 +34 assist Alex Cochrane 2115 +19
- August Priske 1977 +34 assist Jay Stansfield 2082 +2145+4'Birmingham:August Priske 1977 +34 assist Jay Stansfield 2082 +21
- 47'Stanley Mills 1809 −12*Preston:Stanley Mills 1809 −12*
- Liam Millar 2058 +1650'Birmingham:Liam Millar 2058 +16
- 56'Stanley Mills 1809 −12*Preston:Stanley Mills 1809 −12*
- Max Bird 1907 +12 for Jhon Elmer Solís Romero 1925 +1061'Birmingham:Max Bird 1907 +12 for Jhon Elmer Solís Romero 1925 +10
- Demarai Gray 1973 +8 for Liam Millar 2058 +1661'Birmingham:Demarai Gray 1973 +8 for Liam Millar 2058 +16
- 61'Lewis Gibson 1857 −11* for Alfie Devine 1830 −6Preston:Lewis Gibson 1857 −11* for Alfie Devine 1830 −6
- Carlos Vicente 2084 +1 for Patrick Roberts 1998 +2475'Birmingham:Carlos Vicente 2084 +1 for Patrick Roberts 1998 +24
- Taylor·Gardner Hickman 1913 +6 for Tomoki Iwata 2033 +675'Birmingham:Taylor·Gardner Hickman 1913 +6 for Tomoki Iwata 2033 +6
- Demarai Gray 1973 +8 assist Max Bird 1907 +1276'Birmingham:Demarai Gray 1973 +8 assist Max Bird 1907 +12
- Marvin Ducksch 1921 −3 for Jay Stansfield 2082 +2184'Birmingham:Marvin Ducksch 1921 −3 for Jay Stansfield 2082 +21
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 60% · 24% · 16%(Birmingham · draw · Preston)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 4–0 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Birmingham €4.3M, Preston €2.0M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Championship matchday 10: 210 points.
- Style contrast in attacking (Championship): Birmingham ranked #4 of 24, Preston #22.
- Preston's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Birmingham
7th in Championship · 14 pts from 9
- 10 OctWWest Brom England Championship2039
- 19 SepDMiddlesbrough England Championship2049
- 12 SepWDerby England Championship2024
- 9 SepLNorwich England Championship2030
- 6 SepDWolves England Championship2043
Preston
24th in Championship · 4 pts from 9
- 10 OctLMillwall England Championship1815
- 19 SepDQPR England Championship1818
- 12 SepLLincoln England Championship1830
- 8 SepLWatford England Championship1839
- 5 SepWBlackburn England Championship1850
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 14 /9 | 71.3 | 4% | 29% | <1% | 5th |
| Preston | 4 /9 | 42.0 | 0% | 0% | 79% | 24th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Birmingham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 (Good) · Elo 2042
Preston · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1836
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Birmingham: possession-based (how Chris Davies plays) · Preston: balanced profile (how Graham Robert Alexander plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.