Championship · Regular Season - 14
Birmingham vs Millwall
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
Birmingham host Millwall on Tue 3 Nov 2026 (Championship); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Birmingham 47%, draw 28%, Millwall 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Birmingham €4.8M, Millwall €3.1M.
- Style contrast in possession (Championship): Birmingham rank #1 of 24, Millwall #24.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Birmingham goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.8 pts
Team Elo: Birmingham 2055 · Millwall 1990
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Birmingham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2080
Millwall · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 2116
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Birmingham
4th in Championship · 20 pts from 11
- 17 OctWQPR England Championship2054
- 13 OctWPreston England Championship2036
- 10 OctWWest Brom England Championship2039
- 19 SepDMiddlesbrough England Championship2049
- 12 SepWDerby England Championship2024
Millwall
12th in Championship · 15 pts from 11
- 17 OctDLincoln England Championship1996
- 13 OctLSwansea England Championship1992
- 10 OctWPreston England Championship1978
- 19 SepDWest Ham England Championship1990
- 15 SepDMiddlesbrough England Championship1998
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 20 /11 | 74.5 | 5% | 42% | <1% | 5th |
| Millwall | 15 /11 | 64.2 | <1% | 6% | 1% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Birmingham: possession-based (how Chris Davies plays) · Millwall: direct · high-pressing (how Alexander Francis Neil plays)