Thai League 1 · Regular Season - 8
BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 11:00 UTC · True BG Stadium, Pathum Thani
BG Pathum United host Rayong FC on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Thai League 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: BG Pathum United 52%, draw 26%, Rayong FC 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: BG Pathum United €212K, Rayong FC €174K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Thai League 1 matchday 8: 133 points.
- Style contrast in possession (Thai League 1): BG Pathum United rank #4 of 15, Rayong FC #12.
- K. Nontharat, W. Phosririt, Stefan Cebara and A. Amornlertsak (Rayong FC) have not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. BG Pathum United goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: BG Pathum United 1414 · Rayong FC 1281
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; Rayong FC from last season's line-ups (latest 3 May 2026).
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
BG Pathum United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 (Poor) · Elo 1431
Rayong FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Elite) · Elo 1547
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
BG Pathum United
10th in Thai League 1 · 6 pts from 5
- 18 OctDSisaket United Thailand Thai League 11346
- 15 OctLAdelaide United AFC Cup1468
- 10 OctDAyutthaya FC Thailand Thai League 11365
- 4 SepDPattani Thailand Thai League 11464
- 14 MarDRayong FC Thailand Thai League 11368
Rayong FC
7th in Thai League 1 · 8 pts from 5
- 17 OctDUthai Thani Thailand Thai League 11306
- 10 OctLBuriram United Thailand Thai League 11323
- 3 MayLRatchaburi Thailand Thai League 11324
- 5 AprLChonburi FC Thailand Thai League 11375
- 14 MarDBG Pathum United Thailand Thai League 11405
Season outlook
From the Thai League 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BG Pathum United | 6 /5 | 41.5 | <1% | 10% | 4% | 7th |
| Rayong FC | 8 /5 | 37.1 | 0% | 2% | 15% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
BG Pathum United: possession-based · creative (how Vladimir Vujovic plays) · Rayong FC: direct (how Aktaporn Chalitaporn plays)