Thai League 1 · Regular Season - 6
BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 12:00 UTC · True BG Stadium, Pathum Thani
BG Pathum United host Chiangrai United on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Thai League 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: BG Pathum United 50%, draw 27%, Chiangrai United 23%.
- Average value of the expected XI: BG Pathum United €221K, Chiangrai United €169K.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Thai League 1): BG Pathum United rank #3 of 15, Chiangrai United #14.
- Gabriel Henrique and Dudu (Chiangrai United) have not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. BG Pathum United goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: BG Pathum United 1411 · Chiangrai United 1310
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; Chiangrai United from last season's line-ups (latest 3 May 2026).
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
BG Pathum United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 (Poor) · Elo 1431
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
BG Pathum United
10th in Thai League 1 · 6 pts from 5
- 18 OctDSisaket United Thailand Thai League 11346
- 15 OctLAdelaide United AFC Cup1468
- 10 OctDAyutthaya FC Thailand Thai League 11365
- 4 SepDPattani Thailand Thai League 11464
- 14 MarDRayong FC Thailand Thai League 11368
Chiangrai United
12th in Thai League 1 · 4 pts from 5
- 18 OctLRatchaburi Thailand Thai League 11296
- 11 OctLPrachuap Thailand Thai League 11319
- 3 MayDLamphun Warrior Thailand Thai League 11415
- 5 AprLMuangthong United Thailand Thai League 11347
- 13 MarDNakhon Ratchasima FC Thailand Thai League 11384
Season outlook
From the Thai League 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BG Pathum United | 6 /5 | 41.1 | <1% | 9% | 5% | 7th |
| Chiangrai United | 4 /5 | 35.0 | 0% | 1% | 23% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
BG Pathum United: possession-based · creative (how Vladimir Vujovic plays) · Chiangrai United: direct · low-volume (how Worawut Wangsawad plays)