Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 10
Benfica vs Alverca
Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 20:15 UTC
Benfica host Alverca on Mon 2 Nov 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Benfica 79%, draw 14%, Alverca 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Benfica €13.3M, Alverca €1.3M.
- Draw chance 14%, below the Primeira Liga average of 23% this round.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Primeira Liga): Benfica rank #2 of 18, Alverca #16.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Benfica goals first.
- 2–010%
- 3–010%
- 2–18%
- 3–18%
- 4–07%
- 1–06%
- Other scores51%
Team Elo: Benfica 2226 · Alverca 1756
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Benfica · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Elite) · Elo 2353
Alverca · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1925
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Benfica
2nd in Primeira Liga · 19 pts from 8
- 15 OctWCeltic UEFA Europa League2267
- 11 OctWVitória SC Primeira Liga2239
- 20 SepLFC Porto Primeira Liga2248
- 16 SepWAC Milan UEFA Europa League2124
- 13 SepWGIL Vicente Primeira Liga2164
Alverca
8th in Primeira Liga · 11 pts from 8
- 12 OctWFamalicao Primeira Liga1722
- 19 SepWRio Ave Primeira Liga1685
- 12 SepWNacional Primeira Liga1633
- 5 SepLSC Braga Primeira Liga1680
- 29 AugDSanta Clara Primeira Liga1673
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 19 /8 | 77.6 | 13% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Alverca | 11 /8 | 43.8 | 0% | 2% | 3% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Benfica: shot-heavy · possession-based (how Marco Alexandre Saraiva da Silva plays) · Alverca: balanced profile (how Sergio Ferreira plays)