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Super League · Regular Season - 28

Beijing Guoan 1–0 Qingdao Youth Island

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 11:00 UTC · Beijing Workers' Stadium, Beijing

Beijing Guoan crestBeijing GuoanTeam 1825
1–0
Full time
HT 0–0
Qingdao Youth Island crestQingdao Youth IslandTeam 1583

Match story

Beijing Guoan · draw · Qingdao Youth Island

Before kick-off: 62% · 22% · 15%

Live chances: Beijing Guoan 96%, draw 4%, Qingdao Youth Island 0% at 90+3'1' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 62%, draw 22%, Qingdao Youth Island 15%2' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 62%, draw 22%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%3' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 62%, draw 23%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%4' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 62%, draw 23%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%5' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 61%, draw 23%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%6' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 61%, draw 23%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%7' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 61%, draw 23%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%8' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 61%, draw 23%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%9' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 61%, draw 23%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%10' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 60%, draw 24%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%11' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 60%, draw 24%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%13' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 60%, draw 24%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%14' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 60%, draw 24%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%15' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 59%, draw 24%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%16' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 59%, draw 25%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%17' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 59%, draw 25%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%18' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 59%, draw 25%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%19' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 58%, draw 25%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%20' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 58%, draw 25%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%21' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 58%, draw 26%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%22' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 58%, draw 26%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%23' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 57%, draw 26%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%24' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 57%, draw 26%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%25' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 57%, draw 26%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%26' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 57%, draw 27%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%27' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 56%, draw 27%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%28' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 56%, draw 27%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%29' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 56%, draw 27%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%30' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 56%, draw 27%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%31' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 55%, draw 28%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%32' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 55%, draw 28%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%33' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 55%, draw 28%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%34' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 54%, draw 28%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%35' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 54%, draw 29%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%36' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 54%, draw 29%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%37' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 53%, draw 29%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%38' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 53%, draw 30%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%39' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 53%, draw 30%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%40' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 52%, draw 30%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%41' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 52%, draw 30%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%42' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 52%, draw 31%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%43' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 51%, draw 31%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%44' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 51%, draw 31%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%45' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 51%, draw 32%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%45+1' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 50%, draw 32%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%45+2' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 50%, draw 32%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%45+3' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 50%, draw 33%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%HT · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 49%, draw 33%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%46' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 49%, draw 33%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%47' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 49%, draw 33%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%48' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 48%, draw 34%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%49' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 48%, draw 34%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%50' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 48%, draw 35%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%51' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 47%, draw 35%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%52' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 47%, draw 36%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%53' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 46%, draw 36%, Qingdao Youth Island 18%54' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 45%, draw 37%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%55' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 45%, draw 38%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%56' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 44%, draw 38%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%57' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 44%, draw 39%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%58' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 43%, draw 40%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%59' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 42%, draw 40%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%60' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 42%, draw 41%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%61' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 41%, draw 42%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%62' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 41%, draw 42%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%63' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 40%, draw 43%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%64' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 39%, draw 44%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%65' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 39%, draw 45%, Qingdao Youth Island 17%66' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 38%, draw 46%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%67' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 37%, draw 46%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%68' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 37%, draw 47%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%69' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 36%, draw 48%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%70' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 35%, draw 49%, Qingdao Youth Island 16%71' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 34%, draw 50%, Qingdao Youth Island 15%72' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 34%, draw 51%, Qingdao Youth Island 15%73' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 33%, draw 52%, Qingdao Youth Island 15%74' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 32%, draw 53%, Qingdao Youth Island 15%75' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 31%, draw 54%, Qingdao Youth Island 15%76' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 30%, draw 56%, Qingdao Youth Island 14%77' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 29%, draw 57%, Qingdao Youth Island 14%78' · 0–0 · Beijing Guoan 28%, draw 58%, Qingdao Youth Island 14%79' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 86%, draw 12%, Qingdao Youth Island 1%80' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 87%, draw 12%, Qingdao Youth Island 1%81' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 87%, draw 12%, Qingdao Youth Island 1%82' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 88%, draw 11%, Qingdao Youth Island 1%83' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 88%, draw 11%, Qingdao Youth Island 1%84' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 89%, draw 10%, Qingdao Youth Island 1%85' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 89%, draw 10%, Qingdao Youth Island 1%86' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 90%, draw 10%, Qingdao Youth Island 1%87' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 90%, draw 9%, Qingdao Youth Island 1%88' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 91%, draw 8%, Qingdao Youth Island 0%89' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 92%, draw 8%, Qingdao Youth Island 0%90' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 93%, draw 7%, Qingdao Youth Island 0%90+1' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 94%, draw 6%, Qingdao Youth Island 0%90+2' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 95%, draw 5%, Qingdao Youth Island 0%90+3' · 1–0 · Beijing Guoan 96%, draw 4%, Qingdao Youth Island 0%

Last reading, 90+3': 96% · 4% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Beijing Guoan 62% to win: they did.

  1. 21'Beijing Guoan:Zhang Xizhe 1598 +2 for F. Abreu 1841 −4
  2. 48'Qingdao Youth Island:Meng Jingchao 1553 0
  3. 62'Qingdao Youth Island:Yang Zhanpeng 1487 0 for Meng Jingchao 1553 0
  4. 67'Beijing Guoan:Yue Tze-Nam 1743 +2 for Wang Gang 1720 +10
  5. 67'Beijing Guoan:Li Lei 1554 −2 for Bai Yang 1910 +10
  6. 78'Beijing Guoan:Zhang Yuning 1850 +5 assist Serginho 1859 +15
  7. 82'Beijing Guoan:Deng Jiefu 1627 −6* for Lin Liangming 1802 +18
  8. 90+3'Beijing Guoan:Cao Yongjing 1897 +14

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-4-2Formations4-4-1-1
GShibo Liu1596−8*
DYu Dong1675−14*
DSamir Memisevic1748−17
DBruno Viana1680−6
DGengrui Wang15670
MNelson Luz1757−6
MJingchao Meng15530
MChengdong Zhang1533−10
MDavidson1659−10
FXiuwei Zhang1629−3
FAziz1734−5
CCoach #164021462
Before kick-off: 62% · 22% · 15%(Beijing Guoan · draw · Qingdao Youth Island)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 1–0 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Beijing Guoan €594K, Qingdao Youth Island €250K.
  • Super League: Hou Sen was the highest-rated goalkeeper (1884).
  • Style contrast in possession (Super League): Beijing Guoan ranked #1 of 18, Qingdao Youth Island #15.
  • All 11 of Beijing Guoan's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
  • Beijing Guoan were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Beijing Guoan

3rd in Super League · 41 pts from 27

  • 13 OctWBuriram United 1746
  • 9 OctWQingdao Jonoon 1838
  • 15 SepWPohang Steelers 1716
  • 5 SepDShanghai SIPG 1739
  • 28 AugDDalian Zhixing 1820

Qingdao Youth Island

6th in Super League · 38 pts from 27

  • 11 OctLDalian Zhixing 1641
  • 5 SepDWuhan Three Towns 1661
  • 29 AugDTianjin Teda 1679
  • 22 AugWShandong Luneng 1663
  • 14 AugDChongqing Tongliang Long 1662

Season outlook

From the Super League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Beijing Guoan41 /2746.70%96%0%3rd
Qingdao Youth Island38 /2741.00%9%0%7th
Beijing Guoan
Qingdao Youth Island

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Super League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

A. Konte
A. Konte

Beijing Guoan · +6.3 (Elite) · Elo 1879

S. Memišević
S. Memišević

Qingdao Youth Island · +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1765

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Nicholas Anthony Montgomery

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Coach #16402

Coach DNA: –

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Beijing Guoan: possession-based (how Nicholas Anthony Montgomery plays) · Qingdao Youth Island: balanced profile (how Coach #16402 plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.