Super League · Regular Season - 30
Beijing Guoan vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 07:30 UTC · Beijing Workers' Stadium, Beijing
Beijing Guoan host Chongqing Tongliang Long on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Super League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Beijing Guoan 64%, draw 21%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 14%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Beijing Guoan €618K, Chongqing Tongliang Long €364K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Super League matchday 30: 267 points.
- All 11 of Beijing Guoan's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Beijing Guoan goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Beijing Guoan 1832 · Chongqing Tongliang Long 1565
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Beijing Guoan · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.3 (Elite) · Elo 1894
Chongqing Tongliang Long · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1725
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Beijing Guoan
3rd in Super League · 44 pts from 28
- 18 OctWQingdao Youth Island Chinese Super League1853
- 13 OctWBuriram United AFC Champions League1746
- 9 OctWQingdao Jonoon Chinese Super League1838
- 15 SepWPohang Steelers AFC Champions League1716
- 5 SepDShanghai SIPG Chinese Super League1739
Chongqing Tongliang Long
9th in Super League · 33 pts from 28
- 17 OctDYunnan Yukun Chinese Super League1612
- 11 OctDShandong Luneng Chinese Super League1576
- 6 SepLShanghai Shenhua Chinese Super League1584
- 29 AugDHenan Jianye Chinese Super League1489
- 23 AugLDalian Zhixing Chinese Super League1688
Season outlook
From the Super League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Guoan | 44 /28 | 47.8 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 3rd |
| Chongqing Tongliang Long | 33 /28 | 35.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Beijing Guoan: possession-based (how Nick Montgomery plays) · Chongqing Tongliang Long: balanced profile (how Jianye Liu plays)