Bundesliga · Regular Season - 8
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Allianz Arena, Munich
Bayern München host Borussia Dortmund on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bayern München 63%, draw 22%, Borussia Dortmund 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bayern München €42.3M, Borussia Dortmund €35.7M.
- Bundesliga: D. Upamecano is the highest-rated defender (2642).
- Bundesliga: G. Kobel is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2470).
- Bayern München's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 over 180 days.
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bayern München goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 4.6 pts
Team Elo: Bayern München 2528 · Borussia Dortmund 2258
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bayern München · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.1 (Elite) · Elo 2532
Borussia Dortmund · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2394
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bayern München
1st in Bundesliga · 14 pts from 6
- 17 OctWRB Leipzig Bundesliga2504
- 13 OctDViking UEFA Champions League2468
- 10 OctDFC Augsburg Bundesliga2548
- 18 SepWUnion Berlin Bundesliga2566
- 13 SepWSV Elversberg Bundesliga2465
Borussia Dortmund
2nd in Bundesliga · 14 pts from 6
- 17 OctDUnion Berlin Bundesliga2361
- 14 OctLBodo/Glimt UEFA Champions League2272
- 9 OctDWerder Bremen Bundesliga2364
- 19 SepWVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga2361
- 12 SepWSC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga2306
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 14 /6 | 80.4 | 93% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Borussia Dortmund | 14 /6 | 63.8 | 3% | 83% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bayern München: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Vincent Kompany plays) · Borussia Dortmund: dribble-heavy · possession-based (how Niko Kovač plays)