DFB-Pokal · Round of 32
Bayern München vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Allianz Arena, Munich
Bayern MünchenTeam 25211. FC MagdeburgTeam 1857Bayern München host 1. FC Magdeburg on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (DFB-Pokal); on the confirmed line-ups our model gives Bayern München 87%, draw 8%, 1. FC Magdeburg 5%.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the DFB-Pokal Round of 32: 664 points.
- Draw chance 7%, below the DFB-Pokal average of 19% this round.
- Bundesliga: D. Upamecano is the highest-rated defender (2659).
- Bayern München's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 over 180 days.
Prediction — confirmed line-ups
Provisional, from both squads' Elo: 90% · 7% · 3%
Most likely scores
On the confirmed line-ups. Bayern München goals first.
- 4–18%
- 3–17%
- 4–07%
- 5–17%
- 3–06%
- 5–06%
- Other scores59%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, on the confirmed line-ups.
voetbalpoules.nl4–1expected 5.6 pts
Confirmed line-ups
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bayern München · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.6 (Elite) · Elo 2532
1. FC Magdeburg · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1924
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bayern München
1st in Bundesliga · 17 pts from 7
- 25 OctWSC Freiburg Bundesliga2480
- 21 OctDArsenal UEFA Champions League2483
- 17 OctWRB Leipzig Bundesliga2504
- 13 OctDViking UEFA Champions League2468
- 10 OctDFC Augsburg Bundesliga2548
1. FC Magdeburg
5th in 2. Bundesliga · 16 pts from 9
- 24 OctWKarlsruher SC Germany 2 Bundesliga1853
- 18 OctLDynamo Dresden Germany 2 Bundesliga1832
- 10 OctWHannover 96 Germany 2 Bundesliga1791
- 18 SepDSpVgg Greuther Fürth Germany 2 Bundesliga1807
- 12 SepW1. FC Kaiserslautern Germany 2 Bundesliga1766
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bayern München: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Vincent Kompany plays) · 1. FC Magdeburg: possession-based · dribble-heavy (how Petrik Sander plays)