Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10
Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln
Fri 20 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Allianz Arena, Munich
Bayern München host 1. FC Köln on Fri 20 Nov 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bayern München 85%, draw 11%, 1. FC Köln 5%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bayern München €44.0M, 1. FC Köln €6.9M.
- Draw chance 11%, below the Bundesliga average of 23% this round.
- Bundesliga: D. Upamecano is the highest-rated defender (2671).
- Style contrast in dribbling (Bundesliga): Bayern München rank #1 of 18, 1. FC Köln #17.
- Bayern München's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bayern München goals first.
- 3–010%
- 2–09%
- 4–09%
- 3–18%
- 2–17%
- 4–17%
- Other scores50%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com3–0expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl3–0expected 5.7 pts
Team Elo: Bayern München 2538 · 1. FC Köln 1982
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bayern München · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.3 (Elite) · Elo 2548
1. FC Köln · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 2030
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bayern München
1st in Bundesliga · 18 pts from 8
- 3 NovWAtletico Madrid UEFA Champions League2508
- 31 OctDBorussia Dortmund Bundesliga2534
- 28 OctW1. FC Magdeburg Germany DFB Pokal2446
- 25 OctWSC Freiburg Bundesliga2479
- 21 OctDArsenal UEFA Champions League2486
1. FC Köln
13th in Bundesliga · 9 pts from 8
- 1 NovDUnion Berlin Bundesliga1970
- 27 OctWUnion Berlin Germany DFB Pokal1918
- 24 OctDFC Schalke 04 Bundesliga1940
- 16 OctLEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga1934
- 11 OctWBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga1918
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 18 /8 | 80.4 | 94% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| 1. FC Köln | 9 /8 | 37.2 | 0% | <1% | 25% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bayern München: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Vincent Kompany plays) · 1. FC Köln: balanced profile (how Rene Wagner plays)