Bundesliga · Regular Season - 10
Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 14:30 UTC · BayArena, Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen host SC Paderborn 07 on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Bundesliga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bayer Leverkusen 71%, draw 18%, SC Paderborn 07 11%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bayer Leverkusen €26.4M, SC Paderborn 07 €3.4M.
- Draw chance 18%, below the Bundesliga average of 24% this round.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bayer Leverkusen goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–19%
- 3–09%
- 1–09%
- 1–18%
- 3–18%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–0expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl2–0expected 5.0 pts
Team Elo: Bayer Leverkusen 2258 · SC Paderborn 07 1894
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bayer Leverkusen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.2 (Elite) · Elo 2280
SC Paderborn 07 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.7 (Elite) · Elo 2035
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bayer Leverkusen
5th in Bundesliga · 16 pts from 9
- 8 NovW1. FC Köln Bundesliga2269
- 5 NovLMarseille UEFA Europa League2246
- 31 OctLVfB Stuttgart Bundesliga2282
- 28 OctW1. FC Nürnberg Germany DFB Pokal2222
- 25 OctL1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga2312
SC Paderborn 07
13th in Bundesliga · 10 pts from 9
- 7 NovDEintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga1953
- 31 OctDBorussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga1962
- 28 OctLVfB Stuttgart Germany DFB Pokal1827
- 24 OctWHamburger SV Bundesliga1950
- 17 OctDWerder Bremen Bundesliga1945
Season outlook
From the Bundesliga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 16 /9 | 60.2 | <1% | 62% | 0% | 4th |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 10 /9 | 33.5 | 0% | 0% | 43% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bayer Leverkusen: possession-based · creative (how Carles Martínez plays) · SC Paderborn 07: balanced profile (how Ralf Kettemann plays)