Süper Lig · Regular Season - 8
Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FK
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Istanbul
BaşakşehirTeam 1903
Gaziantep FKTeam 1725Match story
Başakşehir · draw · Gaziantep FKBefore kick-off: 58% · 24% · 18%
Last reading, 90+4': 97% · 3% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- E. Shomurodov 9'
- U. Gunes 81'
- S. Dursun 66'
We gave Başakşehir 58% to win: they did.
- E. Shomurodov 2027 +179'
Başakşehir:E. Shomurodov 2027 +17 - 36'O. Ak
Gaziantep FK:O. Ak - S. Kharebashvili 1558 +1045+3'
Başakşehir:S. Kharebashvili 1558 +10 - O. Sahiner 1848 −1 for S. Kharebashvili 1558 +1046'
Başakşehir:O. Sahiner 1848 −1 for S. Kharebashvili 1558 +10 - 46'A. Maxim 1716 −9 for V. Gidado 1537 0
Gaziantep FK:A. Maxim 1716 −9 for V. Gidado 1537 0 - 46'K. Calhanoglu 1583 0 for A. Sylla 1938 −3
Gaziantep FK:K. Calhanoglu 1583 0 for A. Sylla 1938 −3 - J. Kaluzinski 1784 +2451'
Başakşehir:J. Kaluzinski 1784 +24 - Y. Sari 1978 +7 for A. Skov Olsen 2120 +857'
Başakşehir:Y. Sari 1978 +7 for A. Skov Olsen 2120 +8 - U. Gunes 1979 +8 for J. Kaluzinski 1784 +2457'
Başakşehir:U. Gunes 1979 +8 for J. Kaluzinski 1784 +24 - 57'S. Dursun 1636 −7 for T. Stewart 1598 −8*
Gaziantep FK:S. Dursun 1636 −7 for T. Stewart 1598 −8* - 58'D. Camara 1732 0
Gaziantep FK:D. Camara 1732 0 - 64'K. Gassama 1324 −8* for D. Camara 1732 0
Gaziantep FK:K. Gassama 1324 −8* for D. Camara 1732 0 - 66'S. Dursun 1636 −7 assist K. Kozlowski 1839 −6
Gaziantep FK:S. Dursun 1636 −7 assist K. Kozlowski 1839 −6 - B. Yildirim 1768 +3 for U. Bozok 1907 −1*72'
Başakşehir:B. Yildirim 1768 +3 for U. Bozok 1907 −1* - E. Visca 1704 −14* for I. Brnic 1952 +2072'
Başakşehir:E. Visca 1704 −14* for I. Brnic 1952 +20 - O. Ba 1972 +2175'
Başakşehir:O. Ba 1972 +21 - U. Gunes 1979 +879'
Başakşehir:U. Gunes 1979 +8 - 80'D. Sorescu 1760 −2
Gaziantep FK:D. Sorescu 1760 −2 - U. Gunes 1979 +8 assist E. Shomurodov 2027 +1781'
Başakşehir:U. Gunes 1979 +8 assist E. Shomurodov 2027 +17 - 85'K. Kozlowski 1839 −6
Gaziantep FK:K. Kozlowski 1839 −6 - 85'S. Destici 1502 0 for L. Perez 1795 −4
Gaziantep FK:S. Destici 1502 0 for L. Perez 1795 −4 - 87'S. Dursun 1636 −7
Gaziantep FK:S. Dursun 1636 −7
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 58% · 24% · 18%(Başakşehir · draw · Gaziantep FK)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 2–1 had 10%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Başakşehir €2.6M, Gaziantep FK €987K.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Süper Lig): Başakşehir ranked #15 of 18, Gaziantep FK #2.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Başakşehir
12th in Süper Lig · 8 pts from 7
- 11 OctDKonyaspor Turkey Super Lig1927
- 19 SepWGençlerbirliği S.K. Turkey Super Lig1916
- 13 SepLAmed Turkey Super Lig1958
- 4 SepLGalatasaray Turkey Super Lig1970
- 30 AugDKasımpaşa Turkey Super Lig2006
Gaziantep FK
13th in Süper Lig · 8 pts from 7
- 11 OctLÇorum FK Turkey Super Lig1780
- 19 SepLKocaelispor Turkey Super Lig1770
- 14 SepDFenerbahçe Turkey Super Lig1761
- 7 SepWGöztepe Turkey Super Lig1712
- 29 AugLRizespor Turkey Super Lig1687
Season outlook
From the Süper Lig simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 8 /7 | 46.2 | 0% | 2% | 3% | 7th |
| Gaziantep FK | 8 /7 | 33.8 | 0% | 0% | 52% | 17th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Başakşehir · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Elite) · Elo 2021

Gaziantep FK · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1845
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Başakşehir: balanced profile (how Nuri Şahin plays) · Gaziantep FK: balanced profile (how Orhan Ak plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.