League One · Regular Season - 14
Barnsley vs Oxford United
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Oakwell, Barnsley
Barnsley host Oxford United on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Barnsley 32%, draw 29%, Oxford United 39%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Barnsley €426K, Oxford United €982K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of League One matchday 14: 138 points.
- Barnsley's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
- Only 2 of Barnsley's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Oxford United are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Barnsley goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Barnsley 1689 · Oxford United 1827
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Barnsley · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1709
Oxford United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 2094
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Barnsley
21st in League One · 8 pts from 9
- 17 OctLCambridge United England League One1723
- 10 OctLStockport County England League One1717
- 6 OctLFleetwood Town England EFL Trophy1473
- 22 SepLLeeds United U21 England EFL Trophy1606
- 19 SepDLeicester England League One1707
Oxford United
8th in League One · 15 pts from 8
- 15 OctDMansfield Town England League One1814
- 10 OctWNotts County England League One1831
- 6 OctDExeter City England EFL Trophy1627
- 19 SepDCambridge United England League One1811
- 12 SepWBurton Albion England League One1780
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 8 /9 | 48.6 | 0% | 0% | 46% | 24th |
| Oxford United | 15 /8 | 70.6 | 8% | 37% | <1% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct · dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Barnsley: balanced profile (how Daniel Stendel plays) · Oxford United: balanced profile (how Aaron James Ramsey plays)