League One · Regular Season - 11
Barnsley 1–2 Cambridge United
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Oakwell Ground, Barnsley
BarnsleyTeam 1698Cambridge UnitedTeam 1785- Vimal Yoganathan 41'
- Ben Knight 52'
- Shayne Lavery 90+1'
We gave Barnsley 36% to win: Cambridge United won.
- Reyes Cleary –38'Barnsley:Reyes Cleary –
- Vimal Yoganathan –41'Barnsley:Vimal Yoganathan –
- Arley Kay –43'Barnsley:Arley Kay –
- 45'Raees Bangura-Williams – for Owen Moxon –Cambridge United:Raees Bangura-Williams – for Owen Moxon –
- 45'Shayne Lavery – for Isaac Heath –Cambridge United:Shayne Lavery – for Isaac Heath –
- Connor O'Riordan –46'Barnsley:Connor O'Riordan –
- 48'Raees Bangura-Williams –Cambridge United:Raees Bangura-Williams –
- 50'Shayne Lavery –Cambridge United:Shayne Lavery –
- 52'Ben Knight – assist Shayne Lavery –Cambridge United:Ben Knight – assist Shayne Lavery –
- 66'George Hoddle – for Dominic Ball –Cambridge United:George Hoddle – for Dominic Ball –
- Tobi Adeyemo –76'Barnsley:Tobi Adeyemo –
- 77'Louis Appere – for Gassan Ahadme –Cambridge United:Louis Appere – for Gassan Ahadme –
- 79'Ben Knight –Cambridge United:Ben Knight –
- O'Rian Andrew Reid for Vimal Yoganathan –82'Barnsley:O'Rian Andrew Reid for Vimal Yoganathan –
- A. Richards – for Royce Brownlie83'Barnsley:A. Richards – for Royce Brownlie
- Clayton Taylor – for Tobi Adeyemo –85'Barnsley:Clayton Taylor – for Tobi Adeyemo –
- 90+1'Shayne Lavery –Cambridge United:Shayne Lavery –
- 90+2'Patrick Bauer – for Shayne Lavery –Cambridge United:Patrick Bauer – for Shayne Lavery –
- Jack Shepherd –90+5'Barnsley:Jack Shepherd –
Before kick-off (provisional): 36% · 29% · 35%(Barnsley · draw · Cambridge United)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–2 had 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Barnsley €439K, Cambridge United €411K.
- Home advantage made Barnsley the favourite: it added 7 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in attacking (League One): Barnsley ranked #2 of 24, Cambridge United #24.
- Barnsley's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.5 over 180 days.
- Only 2 of Barnsley's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Barnsley
19th in League One · 8 pts from 8
- 10 OctLStockport County England League One1717
- 6 OctLFleetwood Town England EFL Trophy1473
- 22 SepLLeeds United U21 England EFL Trophy1606
- 19 SepDLeicester England League One1707
- 15 SepDPeterborough England League Cup1691
Cambridge United
5th in League One · 16 pts from 9
- 10 OctWBlackpool England League One1779
- 6 OctWNorthampton England EFL Trophy1715
- 26 SepDAFC Wimbledon England League One1739
- 22 SepWGillingham England EFL Trophy1675
- 19 SepDOxford United England League One1765
Season outlook
From the League One simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 8 /8 | 51.3 | 0% | <1% | 36% | 24th |
| Cambridge United | 16 /9 | 66.3 | 3% | 21% | 1% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Barnsley · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1715
Cambridge United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1862
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct · dribble-heavy
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Barnsley: balanced profile (how Daniel Stendel plays) · Cambridge United: balanced profile (how Neil Harris plays)