League Two · Regular Season - 12
Barnet vs Swindon Town
Tue 20 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · The Hive Stadium, London
Barnet host Swindon Town on Tue 20 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Barnet 53%, draw 26%, Swindon Town 21%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Barnet €302K, Swindon Town €199K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of League Two matchday 12: 142 points.
- Barnet are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Barnet goals first.
- 1–112%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Barnet 1724 · Swindon Town 1582
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Barnet · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1870
Swindon Town · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1635
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Barnet
2nd in League Two · 21 pts from 9
- 17 OctWTranmere England League Two1747
- 10 OctWBristol Rovers England League Two1704
- 6 OctDAFC Wimbledon England EFL Trophy1544
- 19 SepWFleetwood Town England League Two1695
- 12 SepWAccrington ST England League Two1678
Swindon Town
18th in League Two · 12 pts from 11
- 17 OctDWalsall England League Two1557
- 10 OctLCrewe England League Two1534
- 3 OctLRochdale England League Two1542
- 26 SepDAccrington ST England League Two1559
- 22 SepLNewport County England EFL Trophy1535
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 21 /9 | 76.1 | 14% | 71% | 0% | 2nd |
| Swindon Town | 12 /11 | 55.5 | 0% | 2% | 21% | 21st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Barnet: balanced profile (how Dean Brennan plays) · Swindon Town: balanced profile (how Scott Holloway Ian plays)