La Liga · Regular Season - 13
Barcelona vs Villarreal
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Camp Nou, Barcelona
Barcelona host Villarreal on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Barcelona 80%, draw 13%, Villarreal 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Barcelona €48.6M, Villarreal €12.7M.
- Draw chance 13%, below the La Liga average of 24% this round.
- La Liga: Joan García is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2704).
- Barcelona's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Barcelona goals first.
- 3–09%
- 2–09%
- 3–18%
- 2–18%
- 4–07%
- 4–16%
- Other scores53%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com3–1expected 1.2 pts
voetbalpoules.nl3–0expected 5.4 pts
Team Elo: Barcelona 2628 · Villarreal 2172
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Barcelona · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.9 (Elite) · Elo 2759
Villarreal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2295
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Barcelona
1st in La Liga · 33 pts from 12
- 8 NovWAtletico Madrid La Liga2605
- 3 NovWAston Villa UEFA Champions League2636
- 31 OctWAlaves La Liga2620
- 25 OctLReal Madrid La Liga2653
- 20 OctLParis Saint Germain UEFA Champions League2618
Villarreal
8th in La Liga · 15 pts from 12
- 8 NovWGetafe La Liga2153
- 3 NovLParis Saint Germain UEFA Champions League2153
- 30 OctLEspanyol La Liga2179
- 24 OctWValencia La Liga2143
- 20 OctLLiverpool UEFA Champions League2201
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 33 /12 | 96.9 | 79% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Villarreal | 15 /12 | 54.0 | 0% | 1% | <1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Barcelona: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Hansi Flick plays) · Villarreal: balanced profile (how Iñigo Pérez plays)