La Liga · Regular Season - 10
Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Camp Nou, Barcelona
Barcelona host Real Madrid on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Barcelona 56%, draw 25%, Real Madrid 19%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Barcelona €56.6M, Real Madrid €65.5M.
- La Liga: Joan García is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2705).
- Barcelona's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 over 180 days.
- Real Madrid's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.9 over 180 days.
- Barcelona have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Barcelona goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: Barcelona 2617 · Real Madrid 2482
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Barcelona · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.4 (Elite) · Elo 2791
Real Madrid · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.0 (Good) · Elo 2565
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Barcelona
1st in La Liga · 27 pts from 9
- 17 OctWReal Betis La Liga2636
- 13 OctWGalatasaray UEFA Champions League2677
- 10 OctWGetafe La Liga2598
- 19 SepWSevilla La Liga2614
- 16 SepWRacing Santander La Liga2611
Real Madrid
3rd in La Liga · 21 pts from 9
- 18 OctWSevilla La Liga2464
- 14 OctWAS Roma UEFA Champions League2471
- 10 OctWVillarreal La Liga2449
- 20 SepLAtletico Madrid La Liga2494
- 15 SepWElche La Liga2475
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 27 /9 | 97.8 | 93% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Real Madrid | 21 /9 | 85.2 | 6% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Barcelona: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Hansi Flick plays) · Real Madrid: possession-based · creative (how José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix plays)