La Liga · Regular Season - 11
Barcelona vs Alaves
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Camp Nou, Barcelona
Barcelona host Alaves on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (La Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Barcelona 91%, draw 7%, Alaves 3%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Barcelona €56.6M, Alaves €3.0M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of La Liga matchday 11: 696 points.
- Draw chance 7%, below the La Liga average of 24% this round.
- La Liga: Joan García is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2705).
- Style contrast in possession (La Liga): Barcelona rank #1 of 20, Alaves #19.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Barcelona goals first.
- 4–010%
- 3–010%
- 5–08%
- 4–17%
- 2–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores51%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com4–0expected 1.3 pts
voetbalpoules.nl4–0expected 6.0 pts
Team Elo: Barcelona 2617 · Alaves 1921
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Barcelona · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.4 (Elite) · Elo 2791
Alaves · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1963
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Barcelona
1st in La Liga · 27 pts from 9
- 17 OctWReal Betis La Liga2636
- 13 OctWGalatasaray UEFA Champions League2677
- 10 OctWGetafe La Liga2598
- 19 SepWSevilla La Liga2614
- 16 SepWRacing Santander La Liga2611
Alaves
7th in La Liga · 11 pts from 9
- 18 OctLCelta Vigo La Liga1979
- 10 OctLAtletico Madrid La Liga1964
- 19 SepDAthletic Club La Liga1924
- 15 SepLValencia La Liga1966
- 12 SepLRacing Santander La Liga1947
Season outlook
From the La Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 27 /9 | 97.8 | 93% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Alaves | 11 /9 | 40.2 | 0% | 0% | 18% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Barcelona: possession-based · shot-heavy (how Hansi Flick plays) · Alaves: direct (how Enrique Sánchez Flores plays)