Liga Pro · Championship Group - 1
Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle
Wed 25 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha, Guayaquil
Barcelona SC host Independiente del Valle on Wed 25 Nov 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Barcelona SC 26%, draw 28%, Independiente del Valle 46%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Barcelona SC €472K, Independiente del Valle €1.1M.
- Liga Pro: A. Quintana is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1956).
- Barcelona SC's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.9 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Barcelona SC goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–111%
- 1–29%
- 0–28%
- 0–08%
- 1–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Barcelona SC 1654 · Independiente del Valle 1858
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Barcelona SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1731
Independiente del Valle · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1890
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Barcelona SC
6th in Liga Pro · 44 pts from 30
- 8 NovDLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1648
- 31 OctLMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1653
- 25 OctWAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1607
- 18 OctDUniversidad Catolica Ecuador Liga Pro1619
- 11 OctLLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1642
Independiente del Valle
1st in Liga Pro · 74 pts from 30
- 8 NovWAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1857
- 1 NovWLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1819
- 23 OctDUniversidad Catolica Ecuador Liga Pro1798
- 17 OctLMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1865
- 10 OctWAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1862
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona SC | 49 /35 | 55.2 | 0% | 15% | 0% | 6th |
| Independiente del Valle | 84 /35 | 92.4 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Barcelona SC: balanced profile (how Pablo Trobbiani plays) · Independiente del Valle: possession-based (how Joaquin Papa plays)