Serie A · Regular Season - 33
Bahia vs Sao Paulo
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Bahia host Sao Paulo on Thu 29 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bahia 49%, draw 27%, Sao Paulo 24%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bahia €3.2M, Sao Paulo €2.9M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bahia goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Bahia 1921 · Sao Paulo 1903
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bahia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1969
Sao Paulo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Average) · Elo 1991
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bahia
7th in Série A · 49 pts from 31
- 18 OctLFlamengo Brazil Serie A1932
- 11 OctWMirassol Brazil Serie A1910
- 9 OctLPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1941
- 20 SepLAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A1930
- 14 SepWRemo Brazil Serie A1925
Sao Paulo
9th in Série A · 42 pts from 31
- 18 OctWVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A1905
- 11 OctWVitoria Brazil Serie A1861
- 8 OctLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1903
- 2 OctLSantos Brazil Serie A1880
- 20 SepWInternacional Brazil Serie A1863
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 49 /31 | 58.3 | 0% | 14% | 0% | 7th |
| Sao Paulo | 42 /31 | 51.8 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bahia: possession-based (how Rogério Mücke Ceni plays) · Sao Paulo: possession-based (how Dorival Silvestre Júnior plays)