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Serie A · Regular Season - 30

Bahia 1–0 Mirassol

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Arena Fonte Nova, El Salvador

Bahia crestBahiaTeam 1878
1–0
Full time
HT 1–0
Mirassol crestMirassolTeam 1789

Match story

Bahia · draw · Mirassol

Before kick-off: 55% · 26% · 19%

Live chances: Bahia 100%, draw 0%, Mirassol 0% at 90+7'3' · 0–0 · Bahia 54%, draw 26%, Mirassol 19%4' · 0–0 · Bahia 54%, draw 26%, Mirassol 20%5' · 0–0 · Bahia 54%, draw 26%, Mirassol 20%6' · 0–0 · Bahia 54%, draw 27%, Mirassol 20%7' · 0–0 · Bahia 54%, draw 27%, Mirassol 20%8' · 0–0 · Bahia 53%, draw 27%, Mirassol 20%9' · 0–0 · Bahia 53%, draw 27%, Mirassol 20%10' · 0–0 · Bahia 53%, draw 27%, Mirassol 20%11' · 1–0 · Bahia 79%, draw 15%, Mirassol 6%12' · 0–0 · Bahia 53%, draw 28%, Mirassol 20%13' · 0–0 · Bahia 52%, draw 28%, Mirassol 20%14' · 0–0 · Bahia 52%, draw 28%, Mirassol 20%15' · 0–0 · Bahia 52%, draw 28%, Mirassol 20%16' · 0–0 · Bahia 52%, draw 29%, Mirassol 20%17' · 0–0 · Bahia 51%, draw 29%, Mirassol 20%18' · 0–0 · Bahia 51%, draw 29%, Mirassol 20%19' · 0–0 · Bahia 51%, draw 29%, Mirassol 20%20' · 0–0 · Bahia 51%, draw 29%, Mirassol 20%21' · 0–0 · Bahia 51%, draw 30%, Mirassol 20%22' · 0–0 · Bahia 50%, draw 30%, Mirassol 20%23' · 0–0 · Bahia 50%, draw 30%, Mirassol 20%24' · 0–0 · Bahia 50%, draw 30%, Mirassol 20%25' · 0–0 · Bahia 50%, draw 30%, Mirassol 20%26' · 0–0 · Bahia 49%, draw 31%, Mirassol 20%27' · 0–0 · Bahia 49%, draw 31%, Mirassol 20%28' · 0–0 · Bahia 49%, draw 31%, Mirassol 20%29' · 0–0 · Bahia 49%, draw 31%, Mirassol 20%30' · 0–0 · Bahia 48%, draw 32%, Mirassol 20%31' · 0–0 · Bahia 48%, draw 32%, Mirassol 20%32' · 0–0 · Bahia 48%, draw 32%, Mirassol 20%33' · 0–0 · Bahia 47%, draw 33%, Mirassol 20%34' · 0–0 · Bahia 47%, draw 33%, Mirassol 20%35' · 0–0 · Bahia 47%, draw 33%, Mirassol 20%36' · 0–0 · Bahia 47%, draw 33%, Mirassol 20%37' · 0–0 · Bahia 46%, draw 34%, Mirassol 20%38' · 0–0 · Bahia 46%, draw 34%, Mirassol 20%39' · 1–0 · Bahia 79%, draw 16%, Mirassol 5%40' · 1–0 · Bahia 79%, draw 16%, Mirassol 5%41' · 1–0 · Bahia 79%, draw 16%, Mirassol 5%42' · 1–0 · Bahia 79%, draw 16%, Mirassol 5%43' · 1–0 · Bahia 79%, draw 16%, Mirassol 5%44' · 1–0 · Bahia 79%, draw 16%, Mirassol 5%45' · 1–0 · Bahia 79%, draw 16%, Mirassol 5%45+1' · 1–0 · Bahia 79%, draw 16%, Mirassol 5%45+2' · 1–0 · Bahia 79%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%45+3' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%45+4' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%45+5' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%45+6' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%45+7' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%HT · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%47' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%48' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%49' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%50' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%51' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%52' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%53' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%54' · 1–0 · Bahia 80%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%55' · 1–0 · Bahia 81%, draw 16%, Mirassol 4%56' · 1–0 · Bahia 81%, draw 16%, Mirassol 3%57' · 1–0 · Bahia 81%, draw 16%, Mirassol 3%58' · 1–0 · Bahia 81%, draw 16%, Mirassol 3%59' · 1–0 · Bahia 81%, draw 16%, Mirassol 3%60' · 1–0 · Bahia 81%, draw 16%, Mirassol 3%61' · 1–0 · Bahia 82%, draw 15%, Mirassol 3%62' · 1–0 · Bahia 82%, draw 15%, Mirassol 3%63' · 1–0 · Bahia 82%, draw 15%, Mirassol 3%64' · 1–0 · Bahia 82%, draw 15%, Mirassol 3%65' · 1–0 · Bahia 82%, draw 15%, Mirassol 3%66' · 1–0 · Bahia 83%, draw 15%, Mirassol 2%67' · 1–0 · Bahia 83%, draw 15%, Mirassol 2%68' · 1–0 · Bahia 83%, draw 15%, Mirassol 2%69' · 1–0 · Bahia 83%, draw 14%, Mirassol 2%70' · 1–0 · Bahia 84%, draw 14%, Mirassol 2%71' · 1–0 · Bahia 84%, draw 14%, Mirassol 2%72' · 1–0 · Bahia 84%, draw 14%, Mirassol 2%73' · 1–0 · Bahia 85%, draw 14%, Mirassol 2%74' · 1–0 · Bahia 85%, draw 13%, Mirassol 2%75' · 1–0 · Bahia 85%, draw 13%, Mirassol 2%76' · 1–0 · Bahia 86%, draw 13%, Mirassol 1%77' · 1–0 · Bahia 86%, draw 13%, Mirassol 1%78' · 1–0 · Bahia 87%, draw 12%, Mirassol 1%79' · 1–0 · Bahia 87%, draw 12%, Mirassol 1%80' · 1–0 · Bahia 87%, draw 11%, Mirassol 1%81' · 1–0 · Bahia 88%, draw 11%, Mirassol 1%82' · 1–0 · Bahia 88%, draw 11%, Mirassol 1%83' · 1–0 · Bahia 89%, draw 10%, Mirassol 1%84' · 1–0 · Bahia 89%, draw 10%, Mirassol 1%85' · 1–0 · Bahia 90%, draw 9%, Mirassol 1%86' · 1–0 · Bahia 91%, draw 9%, Mirassol 1%87' · 1–0 · Bahia 91%, draw 8%, Mirassol 0%88' · 1–0 · Bahia 92%, draw 8%, Mirassol 0%89' · 1–0 · Bahia 93%, draw 7%, Mirassol 0%90' · 1–0 · Bahia 94%, draw 6%, Mirassol 0%90+1' · 1–0 · Bahia 94%, draw 5%, Mirassol 0%90+2' · 1–0 · Bahia 95%, draw 5%, Mirassol 0%90+3' · 1–0 · Bahia 96%, draw 4%, Mirassol 0%90+4' · 1–0 · Bahia 97%, draw 3%, Mirassol 0%90+5' · 1–0 · Bahia 98%, draw 2%, Mirassol 0%90+6' · 1–0 · Bahia 99%, draw 1%, Mirassol 0%90+7' · 1–0 · Bahia 100%, draw 0%, Mirassol 0%

Last reading, 90+7': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Bahia 55% to win: they did.

  1. 35'Mirassol:Chico Kim 1393 −8
  2. 36'Mirassol:Walter Leandro Capeloza Artune 1860 −10
  3. 38'Bahia:Luciano 1981 +18 (pen.)
  4. 45'Mirassol:Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve 1569 −10 for Chico Kim 1393 −8
  5. 45'Mirassol:Edson Carioca 1872 −3 for Alesson dos Santos Batista 1943 −4
  6. 45'Mirassol:Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo 1815 −10* for Gustavo Henric da Silva 1828 −10*
  7. 59'Bahia:Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho 1922 +2 for Caio Alexandre 1843 +18
  8. 59'Bahia:Román Gómez 1937 +7 for Marcos Victor 1821 +13*
  9. 63'Bahia:Jean Lucas 1888 +8
  10. 67'Mirassol:André Luis 1756 −4 for Bruno Santos de Oliveira 1663 −2
  11. 72'Bahia:Ademir 1821 −1 for Cristian Olivera 1947 +6
  12. 73'Mirassol:Carlos Eduardo 1776 −9* for Denilson Alves Borges 1919 −11
  13. 73'Bahia:Éverton Ribeiro 1656 −10* for Rodrigo Nestor 1961 +16
  14. 78'Mirassol:Carlos Eduardo 1776 −9*
  15. 87'Bahia:Willian José 1702 −6 for Alejo Veliz 2021 +5
  16. 90+3'Mirassol:Neto Moura 1763 −2
  17. 90+7'Mirassol:Reinaldo 1816 −10 (penalty missed)

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations5-4-1
GWalter1860−10
DIgor Formiga1960−20
DAlesson1943−4
DLucas Oliveira1804−2
DWillian Machado1901−14
DReinaldo1816−10
MGustavo Silva1828−10*
MDenilson1919−11
MNeto Moura1763−2
MChico1393−8
FBruno Santos1663−2
CRafael Guanaes1948−12
Before kick-off: 55% · 26% · 19%(Bahia · draw · Mirassol)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 1–0 had 11%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Bahia €3.3M, Mirassol €1.3M.
  • Bahia were without 1 expected starter: N. Acevedo (1930).
  • Mirassol were without 1 expected starter: João Victor (1944).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Bahia

6th in Série A · 46 pts from 29

  • 9 OctLPalmeiras 1941
  • 20 SepLAtletico Paranaense 1930
  • 14 SepWRemo 1925
  • 5 SepWRB Bragantino 1939
  • 30 AugWInternacional 1927

Mirassol

15th in Série A · 33 pts from 29

  • 7 OctDRB Bragantino 1796
  • 19 SepWBotafogo 1753
  • 13 SepDVitoria 1738
  • 6 SepWCoritiba 1786
  • 2 SepLFlamengo 1812

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Bahia46 /2958.20%16%0%7th
Mirassol33 /2943.20%0%22%18th
Bahia
Mirassol

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Luciano Juba
Luciano Juba

Bahia · +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1963

Willian Machado
Willian Machado

Mirassol · +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1915

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Rogério Mücke Ceni

Coach DNA: possession-based

Rafael Silva Guanaes

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Bahia: possession-based (how Rogério Mücke Ceni plays) · Mirassol: balanced profile (how Rafael Silva Guanaes plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.