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Serie A · Regular Season - 31

Bahia 0–3 Flamengo

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Arena Fonte Nova, El Salvador

Bahia crestBahiaTeam 1909
0–3
Full time
HT 0–0
Flamengo crestFlamengoTeam 2233

Match story

Bahia · draw · Flamengo

Before kick-off: 23% · 28% · 48%

Live chances: Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 28%, Flamengo 48%2' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 28%, Flamengo 48%3' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 29%, Flamengo 48%4' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 29%, Flamengo 48%5' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 29%, Flamengo 48%6' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 29%, Flamengo 48%7' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 29%, Flamengo 48%8' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 29%, Flamengo 47%9' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 29%, Flamengo 47%10' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 29%, Flamengo 47%11' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 30%, Flamengo 47%12' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 30%, Flamengo 47%13' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 30%, Flamengo 47%14' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 30%, Flamengo 47%15' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 30%, Flamengo 46%16' · 0–0 · Bahia 24%, draw 30%, Flamengo 46%17' · 0–0 · Bahia 24%, draw 30%, Flamengo 46%18' · 0–0 · Bahia 24%, draw 31%, Flamengo 46%19' · 0–0 · Bahia 24%, draw 31%, Flamengo 46%20' · 0–0 · Bahia 24%, draw 31%, Flamengo 46%21' · 0–0 · Bahia 24%, draw 31%, Flamengo 45%22' · 0–0 · Bahia 24%, draw 31%, Flamengo 45%23' · 0–0 · Bahia 24%, draw 32%, Flamengo 45%24' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 32%, Flamengo 45%25' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 32%, Flamengo 45%26' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 32%, Flamengo 44%27' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 32%, Flamengo 44%28' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 32%, Flamengo 44%29' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 33%, Flamengo 44%30' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 33%, Flamengo 44%31' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 33%, Flamengo 43%32' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 33%, Flamengo 43%33' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 34%, Flamengo 43%34' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 34%, Flamengo 43%35' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 34%, Flamengo 43%36' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 34%, Flamengo 42%37' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 35%, Flamengo 42%38' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 35%, Flamengo 42%39' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 35%, Flamengo 42%40' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 35%, Flamengo 41%41' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 36%, Flamengo 41%42' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 36%, Flamengo 41%43' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 36%, Flamengo 41%44' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 37%, Flamengo 40%45' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 37%, Flamengo 40%45+1' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 37%, Flamengo 40%45+2' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 38%, Flamengo 40%45+3' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 38%, Flamengo 39%HT · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 38%, Flamengo 39%47' · 0–0 · Bahia 23%, draw 39%, Flamengo 39%49' · 0–0 · Bahia 22%, draw 40%, Flamengo 38%50' · 0–0 · Bahia 22%, draw 40%, Flamengo 38%52' · 0–0 · Bahia 22%, draw 41%, Flamengo 37%53' · 0–0 · Bahia 22%, draw 42%, Flamengo 37%55' · 0–0 · Bahia 22%, draw 43%, Flamengo 36%56' · 0–0 · Bahia 21%, draw 43%, Flamengo 35%57' · 0–0 · Bahia 21%, draw 44%, Flamengo 35%59' · 0–0 · Bahia 21%, draw 45%, Flamengo 34%60' · 0–0 · Bahia 21%, draw 46%, Flamengo 33%61' · 0–0 · Bahia 20%, draw 47%, Flamengo 33%62' · 0–0 · Bahia 20%, draw 47%, Flamengo 32%64' · 0–0 · Bahia 20%, draw 49%, Flamengo 31%65' · 0–1 · Bahia 4%, draw 20%, Flamengo 76%66' · 0–1 · Bahia 4%, draw 19%, Flamengo 76%68' · 0–1 · Bahia 4%, draw 19%, Flamengo 77%69' · 0–1 · Bahia 4%, draw 19%, Flamengo 77%70' · 0–1 · Bahia 4%, draw 19%, Flamengo 78%71' · 0–1 · Bahia 3%, draw 18%, Flamengo 78%72' · 0–1 · Bahia 3%, draw 18%, Flamengo 79%73' · 0–2 · Bahia 0%, draw 2%, Flamengo 97%74' · 0–2 · Bahia 0%, draw 2%, Flamengo 98%75' · 0–2 · Bahia 0%, draw 2%, Flamengo 98%76' · 0–2 · Bahia 0%, draw 2%, Flamengo 98%77' · 0–2 · Bahia 0%, draw 2%, Flamengo 98%78' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%79' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%80' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%81' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%82' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%83' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%84' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%85' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%86' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%87' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%88' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%89' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%90' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%90+1' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%90+2' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%90+3' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%90+4' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%90+5' · 0–3 · Bahia 0%, draw 0%, Flamengo 100%

Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Flamengo 48% to win: they did.

  1. 3'Flamengo:Erick Pulgar 2190 +10
  2. 41'Bahia:Cristian Olivera 1941 −6
  3. 48'Flamengo:Léo Pereira 2339 +16
  4. 51'Bahia:Jean Lucas 1884 −5
  5. 64'Flamengo:Jorginho 2195 +37 (pen.)
  6. 65'Bahia:Caio Alexandre 1842 −1 for Nicolas Acevedo 1924 −6
  7. 65'Bahia:Román Gómez 1935 −2 for Marcos Victor 1821 0
  8. 65'Bahia:Ademir 1817 −4 for Cristian Olivera 1941 −6
  9. 68'Flamengo:Lucas Paquetá 2289 +6 for Jorge Carrascal 2247 +27
  10. 73'Flamengo:Gonzalo Plata 2386 +22 assist Samuel Lino 2352 +21
  11. 75'Bahia:Éverton Ribeiro 1645 −11 for Rodrigo Nestor 1953 −8
  12. 75'Bahia:Mateo Naín Sanabria 1676 0 for erick pulga 1926 −6
  13. 75'Flamengo:Joaquín Freitas 1711 +17 for Samuel Lino 2352 +21
  14. 76'Flamengo:Bruno Henrique 1935 −4 for Pedro 2288 +9
  15. 78'Flamengo:Lucas Paquetá 2289 +6 assist Guillermo Varela 2194 +37
  16. 83'Flamengo:Vitão 2088 −6* for Léo Ortiz 2338 +23
  17. 83'Flamengo:Nicolas De la Cruz 2102 0 for Erick Pulgar 2190 +10
  18. 86'Bahia:Marco Moreno 1865 −2
  19. 89'Bahia:Román Gómez 1935 −2

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations4-2-3-1
GRonaldo1965−34
DMarcos Victor18210
DDavid Duarte1902−9
DMarco Moreno1865−2
DLuciano Juba1969−12
MJean Lucas1884−5
MN. Acevedo1924−6
MRodrigo Nestor1953−8
FC. Olivera1941−6
FA. Véliz2006−14
FErick Pulga1926−6
CRogério Ceni1921−14
GA. Rossi2368+24
DEmerson Royal2296+11
DLéo Ortiz2338+23
DLéo Pereira2339+16
DG. Varela2194+37
ME. Pulgar2190+10
MJorginho2195+37
MJ. Carrascal2247+27
MG. Plata2386+22
MSamuel Lino2352+21
FPedro2288+9
CLeonardo Jardim2209+29
Before kick-off: 23% · 28% · 48%(Bahia · draw · Flamengo)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–3 had 5%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Bahia €3.3M, Flamengo €11.2M.
  • Flamengo were without 1 expected starter: Ayrton Lucas (2277).
  • Série A: A. Rossi was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2344).
  • Flamengo's expected eleven was in form: average +2.1 over 180 days.
  • All 11 of Flamengo's expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Bahia

6th in Série A · 49 pts from 30

  • 11 OctWMirassol 1910
  • 9 OctLPalmeiras 1941
  • 20 SepLAtletico Paranaense 1930
  • 14 SepWRemo 1925
  • 5 SepWRB Bragantino 1939

Flamengo

2nd in Série A · 64 pts from 30

  • 16 OctDEstudiantes L.P. 2201
  • 11 OctWFluminense 2213
  • 8 OctDSantos 2220
  • 20 SepWRB Bragantino 2236
  • 18 SepDIndependiente del Valle 2243

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Bahia49 /3059.40%23%0%7th
Flamengo64 /3080.454%100%0%1st
Bahia
Flamengo

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Luciano Juba
Luciano Juba

Bahia · +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1981

Léo Ortiz
Léo Ortiz

Flamengo · +5.1 (Good) · Elo 2316

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Rogério Mücke Ceni

Coach DNA: possession-based

José Leonardo Nunes Alves Sousa Jardim

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Bahia: possession-based (how Rogério Mücke Ceni plays) · Flamengo: possession-based (how José Leonardo Nunes Alves Sousa Jardim plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.