Serie A · Regular Season - 36
Bahia vs Coritiba
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 20:30 UTC · Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Bahia host Coritiba on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Bahia 60%, draw 23%, Coritiba 17%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Bahia €2.8M, Coritiba €952K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Bahia goals first.
- 1–012%
- 2–011%
- 1–111%
- 2–110%
- 0–07%
- 3–07%
- Other scores42%
Team Elo: Bahia 1909 · Coritiba 1766
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Bahia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1956
Coritiba · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1717
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Bahia
6th in Série A · 53 pts from 34
- 6 NovLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1900
- 29 OctWSao Paulo Brazil Serie A1916
- 25 OctDSantos Brazil Serie A1915
- 18 OctLFlamengo Brazil Serie A1922
- 11 OctWMirassol Brazil Serie A1899
Coritiba
12th in Série A · 42 pts from 34
- 4 NovLInternacional Brazil Serie A1794
- 31 OctWVitoria Brazil Serie A1774
- 26 OctLGremio Brazil Serie A1773
- 17 OctLAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1763
- 12 OctDBotafogo Brazil Serie A1768
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 53 /34 | 58.8 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 5th |
| Coritiba | 42 /34 | 45.1 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Bahia: possession-based (how Rogério Ceni plays) · Coritiba: balanced profile (how Seabra Fernando plays)