Eredivisie · Regular Season - 10
AZ Alkmaar vs Twente
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar host Twente on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Eredivisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: AZ Alkmaar 46%, draw 28%, Twente 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AZ Alkmaar €4.8M, Twente €3.4M.
- Twente's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. AZ Alkmaar goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.7 pts
Team Elo: AZ Alkmaar 2066 · Twente 2005
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AZ Alkmaar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.3 (Good) · Elo 2140
Twente · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2121
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AZ Alkmaar
2nd in Eredivisie · 20 pts from 9
- 18 OctDCambuur Eredivisie2080
- 15 OctWHapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League2012
- 10 OctLFeyenoord Eredivisie2093
- 20 SepWTelstar Eredivisie2111
- 16 SepLSunderland UEFA Europa League2090
Twente
5th in Eredivisie · 17 pts from 9
- 18 OctLUtrecht Eredivisie2056
- 15 OctWFC Thun UEFA Conference League2036
- 10 OctDFortuna Sittard Eredivisie2033
- 20 SepWPSV Eindhoven Eredivisie1981
- 12 SepWADO Den Haag Eredivisie1995
Season outlook
From the Eredivisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 20 /9 | 65.3 | 9% | 78% | 0% | 4th |
| Twente | 17 /9 | 59.1 | 1% | 34% | 0% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
AZ Alkmaar: balanced profile (how Leeroy Echteld plays) · Twente: balanced profile (how John Antonius van den Brom plays)