Eredivisie · Regular Season - 12
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 15:45 UTC · AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar host Groningen on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Eredivisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: AZ Alkmaar 57%, draw 25%, Groningen 19%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AZ Alkmaar €4.9M, Groningen €1.9M.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Eredivisie): AZ Alkmaar rank #4 of 18, Groningen #15.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. AZ Alkmaar goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 4.2 pts
Team Elo: AZ Alkmaar 2060 · Groningen 1871
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AZ Alkmaar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.3 (Good) · Elo 2148
Groningen · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1980
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AZ Alkmaar
2nd in Eredivisie · 20 pts from 9
- 22 OctWArarat-Armenia UEFA Europa League2005
- 18 OctDCambuur Eredivisie2080
- 15 OctWHapoel Beer Sheva UEFA Europa League2012
- 10 OctLFeyenoord Eredivisie2093
- 20 SepWTelstar Eredivisie2111
Groningen
7th in Eredivisie · 14 pts from 9
- 18 OctLAjax Eredivisie1920
- 11 OctWExcelsior Eredivisie1882
- 18 SepWPEC Zwolle Eredivisie1863
- 12 SepDGO Ahead Eagles Eredivisie1855
- 6 SepDTwente Eredivisie1860
Season outlook
From the Eredivisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 20 /9 | 64.7 | 7% | 78% | 0% | 4th |
| Groningen | 14 /9 | 48.8 | 0% | 3% | <1% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy · possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
AZ Alkmaar: balanced profile (how Leeroy Echteld plays) · Groningen: balanced profile (how Dick Lukkien plays)