Segunda Liga · Regular Season - 8
AVS vs Tondela
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 11:00 UTC
AVS host Tondela on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Segunda Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: AVS 40%, draw 29%, Tondela 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: AVS €349K, Tondela €438K.
- Home advantage makes AVS the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. AVS goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: AVS 1544 · Tondela 1559
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
AVS · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Elite) · Elo 1717
Tondela · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Good) · Elo 1705
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
AVS
12th in Segunda Liga · 9 pts from 7
- 9 OctWPenafiel Liga Portugal 21515
- 13 SepDFarense Liga Portugal 21452
- 7 SepLLusitânia Lourosa Liga Portugal 21513
- 30 AugWFeirense Liga Portugal 21468
- 17 AugDFelgueiras 1932 Liga Portugal 21482
Tondela
7th in Segunda Liga · 12 pts from 7
- 10 OctWTorreense Liga Portugal 21567
- 12 SepWPortimonense Liga Portugal 21480
- 5 SepWFC Porto B Liga Portugal 21509
- 28 AugLUnião de Leiria Liga Portugal 21440
- 16 AugLLeixoes Liga Portugal 21537
Season outlook
From the Segunda Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVS | 9 /7 | 48.2 | 3% | 20% | 4% | 5th |
| Tondela | 12 /7 | 51.0 | 6% | 33% | 2% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
AVS: direct (how Sergio Fonseca plays) · Tondela: balanced profile (how Ricardo Costa plays)