Serie B · Regular Season - 6
Avellino 4–1 Sampdoria
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:30 UTC · Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino
AvellinoTeam 1707SampdoriaTeam 1832We gave Sampdoria 38% to win: Avellino won.
Before kick-off (provisional): 33% · 29% · 38%(Avellino · draw · Sampdoria)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 4–1 had 1%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Avellino €813K, Sampdoria €1.7M.
- All 11 of Sampdoria's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Avellino
9th in Serie B · 7 pts from 5
- 19 SepLAscoli Italy Serie B1740
- 13 SepDPalermo Italy Serie B1701
- 6 SepWModena Italy Serie B1694
- 29 AugWVicenza Virtus Italy Serie B1687
- 22 AugLArezzo Italy Serie B1700
Sampdoria
17th in Serie B · 4 pts from 5
- 19 SepWCatanzaro Italy Serie B1801
- 13 SepLMantova Italy Serie B1786
- 7 SepLPalermo Italy Serie B1817
- 29 AugLJuve Stabia Italy Serie B1817
- 23 AugDCesena Italy Serie B1785
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino | 7 /5 | 52.9 | <1% | 12% | 3% | 9th |
| Sampdoria | 4 /5 | 61.0 | 4% | 46% | <1% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Avellino · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1776
Sampdoria · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1822
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Avellino: balanced profile (how Alessandro Nesta plays) · Sampdoria: balanced profile (how Bernardo Corradi plays)