Serie B · Regular Season - 8
Avellino vs Padova
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino
Avellino host Padova on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Avellino 47%, draw 27%, Padova 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Avellino €1.0M, Padova €849K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Avellino goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Avellino 1741 · Padova 1684
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Avellino · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1704
Padova · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1725
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Avellino
7th in Serie B · 11 pts from 7
- 18 OctDCesena Italy Serie B1782
- 9 OctWSampdoria Italy Serie B1749
- 19 SepLAscoli Italy Serie B1740
- 13 SepDPalermo Italy Serie B1701
- 6 SepWModena Italy Serie B1694
Padova
15th in Serie B · 7 pts from 7
- 17 OctLVirtus Entella Italy Serie B1674
- 11 OctLCarrarese Italy Serie B1713
- 19 SepLPalermo Italy Serie B1646
- 12 SepWAscoli Italy Serie B1677
- 6 SepLCremonese Italy Serie B1734
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino | 11 /7 | 55.9 | 1% | 25% | 1% | 6th |
| Padova | 7 /7 | 49.0 | 0% | 5% | 11% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Avellino: balanced profile (how Alessandro Nesta plays) · Padova: balanced profile (how Nicola Antonio Calabro plays)