Serie B · Regular Season - 12
Avellino vs Mantova
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino
Avellino host Mantova on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Avellino 44%, draw 28%, Mantova 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Avellino €1.1M, Mantova €995K.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Serie B): Avellino rank #18 of 20, Mantova #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Avellino goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–011%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 0–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Avellino 1753 · Mantova 1737
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Avellino · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1731
Mantova · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1850
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Avellino
5th in Serie B · 16 pts from 11
- 7 NovDBenevento Italy Serie B1781
- 1 NovWPisa Italy Serie B1751
- 27 OctDVirtus Entella Italy Serie B1686
- 24 OctLPadova Italy Serie B1752
- 18 OctDCesena Italy Serie B1777
Mantova
4th in Serie B · 19 pts from 11
- 7 NovDHellas Verona Italy Serie B1727
- 31 OctDModena Italy Serie B1767
- 27 OctLCremonese Italy Serie B1800
- 24 OctWVirtus Entella Italy Serie B1774
- 17 OctLPalermo Italy Serie B1789
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino | 16 /11 | 55.8 | <1% | 20% | <1% | 7th |
| Mantova | 19 /11 | 59.3 | 1% | 36% | <1% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Avellino: balanced profile (how Alessandro Nesta plays) · Mantova: possession-based (how Francesco Modesto plays)