Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 30
Austin 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Q2 Stadium, Austin
AustinTeam 1869Vancouver WhitecapsTeam 1950- Myrto Uzuni 40'
- Ryan Gauld 47'
- Yadaly Diaby 71'
We gave Austin 40% to win: Vancouver Whitecaps won.
- 13'Andrés Cubas 2095 +6Vancouver Whitecaps:Andrés Cubas 2095 +6
- 36'Tristan Blackmon 2047 +13Vancouver Whitecaps:Tristan Blackmon 2047 +13
- Myrto Uzuni 1920 −1040'Austin:Myrto Uzuni 1920 −10
- 47'Ryan Gauld 1990 +51 assist Emmanuel Sabbi 2053 +37Vancouver Whitecaps:Ryan Gauld 1990 +51 assist Emmanuel Sabbi 2053 +37
- Guilherme Biro 2001 −5 for Oleksandr Svatok 1916 −564'Austin:Guilherme Biro 2001 −5 for Oleksandr Svatok 1916 −5
- 65'Yadaly Diaby 1727 +25 for Bruno Caicedo 1763 +23Vancouver Whitecaps:Yadaly Diaby 1727 +25 for Bruno Caicedo 1763 +23
- 65'Ralph Priso 2049 +4 for Andrés Cubas 2095 +6Vancouver Whitecaps:Ralph Priso 2049 +4 for Andrés Cubas 2095 +6
- 71'Yadaly Diaby 1727 +25 assist Tate Johnson 2114 +33Vancouver Whitecaps:Yadaly Diaby 1727 +25 assist Tate Johnson 2114 +33
- Jorge Alastuey 1352 0 for Besard Sabovic 1927 −473'Austin:Jorge Alastuey 1352 0 for Besard Sabovic 1927 −4
- Facundo Daniel Torres Perez 2074 −3 for Christian Ramirez 1710 −774'Austin:Facundo Daniel Torres Perez 2074 −3 for Christian Ramirez 1710 −7
- Mikkel Desler 1975 −4 for Brendan Hines-Ike 1922 −574'Austin:Mikkel Desler 1975 −4 for Brendan Hines-Ike 1922 −5
- 81'Oliver Love Larraz 1986 +2 for Aleksa Cvetkovic 1678 +35Vancouver Whitecaps:Oliver Love Larraz 1986 +2 for Aleksa Cvetkovic 1678 +35
- 81'Cheikh Sabaly 1851 +2 for Emmanuel Sabbi 2053 +37Vancouver Whitecaps:Cheikh Sabaly 1851 +2 for Emmanuel Sabbi 2053 +37
- Ilie Sánchez 1778 −9 for Jon Gallagher 1927 −582'Austin:Ilie Sánchez 1778 −9 for Jon Gallagher 1927 −5
- 87'Rayan Elloumi 1695 +1 for Brian White 2052 +12Vancouver Whitecaps:Rayan Elloumi 1695 +1 for Brian White 2052 +12
- 90'Ryan Gauld 1990 +51Vancouver Whitecaps:Ryan Gauld 1990 +51
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 40% · 26% · 34%(Austin · draw · Vancouver Whitecaps)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 1–2 had 8%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Austin €1.4M, Vancouver Whitecaps €3.4M.
- Home advantage made Austin the favourite: it added 9 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Austin
14th in MLS · 31 pts from 29
- 15 OctLLos Angeles FC MLS1921
- 11 OctLNashville SC MLS1878
- 27 SepDSan Diego MLS1875
- 20 SepDFC Dallas MLS1861
- 13 SepWVancouver Whitecaps MLS1821
Vancouver Whitecaps
1st in MLS · 52 pts from 29
- 15 OctDSt. Louis City MLS2007
- 11 OctDLos Angeles FC MLS2003
- 7 OctLChicago Fire MLS1956
- 27 SepDDC United MLS1954
- 20 SepWReal Salt Lake MLS1986
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | 31 /29 | 38.0 | 0% | 0% | 17% | 28th |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 52 /29 | 59.4 | 0% | 71% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Austin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 (Good) · Elo 1930
Vancouver Whitecaps · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2088
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Austin: low-volume (how Davy Arnaud plays) · Vancouver Whitecaps: balanced profile (how Jesper Ingemann Sørensen plays)