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Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 28

Austin 1–4 Nashville SC

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Q2 Stadium, Austin

Austin crestAustinTeam 1864
1–4
Full time
HT 0–1
Nashville SC crestNashville SCTeam 2074

Match story

Austin · draw · Nashville SC

Before kick-off: 30% · 26% · 44%

Live chances: Austin 0%, draw 0%, Nashville SC 100% at 90+6'1' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 44%2' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 44%3' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 44%4' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 44%5' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 44%6' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 44%7' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 44%8' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 27%, Nashville SC 44%9' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 27%, Nashville SC 44%10' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 27%, Nashville SC 43%11' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 27%, Nashville SC 43%12' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 27%, Nashville SC 43%13' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 27%, Nashville SC 43%14' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 28%, Nashville SC 43%15' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 28%, Nashville SC 43%16' · 0–0 · Austin 30%, draw 28%, Nashville SC 43%17' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 28%, Nashville SC 42%18' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 28%, Nashville SC 42%19' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 28%, Nashville SC 42%20' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 29%, Nashville SC 42%21' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 29%, Nashville SC 42%22' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 29%, Nashville SC 42%23' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 29%, Nashville SC 42%24' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 29%, Nashville SC 41%25' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 30%, Nashville SC 41%26' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 30%, Nashville SC 41%27' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 30%, Nashville SC 41%28' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 30%, Nashville SC 41%29' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 30%, Nashville SC 41%30' · 0–0 · Austin 29%, draw 31%, Nashville SC 40%31' · 0–1 · Austin 13%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 66%32' · 0–1 · Austin 13%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 66%34' · 0–1 · Austin 12%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 67%35' · 0–1 · Austin 12%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 67%37' · 0–1 · Austin 12%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 67%38' · 0–1 · Austin 12%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 67%39' · 0–1 · Austin 11%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 67%40' · 0–1 · Austin 11%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 67%41' · 0–1 · Austin 11%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 67%42' · 0–1 · Austin 11%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 67%44' · 0–1 · Austin 11%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 68%45' · 0–1 · Austin 10%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 68%45+1' · 0–1 · Austin 10%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 68%45+2' · 0–1 · Austin 10%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 68%HT · 0–1 · Austin 10%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 68%46' · 0–1 · Austin 10%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 69%48' · 0–1 · Austin 9%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 69%49' · 0–1 · Austin 9%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 69%50' · 0–1 · Austin 9%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 69%51' · 0–1 · Austin 9%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 69%53' · 0–1 · Austin 8%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 70%54' · 0–1 · Austin 8%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 70%55' · 0–1 · Austin 8%, draw 22%, Nashville SC 71%56' · 0–1 · Austin 8%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 71%57' · 0–1 · Austin 7%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 71%58' · 0–1 · Austin 7%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 71%59' · 0–1 · Austin 7%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 72%60' · 0–1 · Austin 7%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 72%61' · 0–1 · Austin 7%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 72%63' · 0–1 · Austin 6%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 73%64' · 0–1 · Austin 6%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 73%65' · 0–1 · Austin 6%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 74%66' · 0–1 · Austin 5%, draw 20%, Nashville SC 74%67' · 0–2 · Austin 1%, draw 4%, Nashville SC 96%68' · 0–2 · Austin 0%, draw 3%, Nashville SC 96%70' · 0–2 · Austin 0%, draw 3%, Nashville SC 96%71' · 0–2 · Austin 0%, draw 3%, Nashville SC 97%72' · 0–2 · Austin 0%, draw 3%, Nashville SC 97%73' · 0–2 · Austin 0%, draw 3%, Nashville SC 97%74' · 0–2 · Austin 0%, draw 3%, Nashville SC 97%75' · 0–2 · Austin 0%, draw 2%, Nashville SC 97%77' · 1–2 · Austin 3%, draw 18%, Nashville SC 80%78' · 1–2 · Austin 3%, draw 17%, Nashville SC 80%79' · 1–2 · Austin 3%, draw 17%, Nashville SC 81%80' · 1–2 · Austin 2%, draw 16%, Nashville SC 82%81' · 1–2 · Austin 2%, draw 16%, Nashville SC 82%82' · 1–2 · Austin 2%, draw 15%, Nashville SC 83%83' · 1–2 · Austin 2%, draw 15%, Nashville SC 84%84' · 1–2 · Austin 2%, draw 14%, Nashville SC 85%85' · 1–2 · Austin 1%, draw 13%, Nashville SC 85%86' · 1–2 · Austin 1%, draw 13%, Nashville SC 86%87' · 1–2 · Austin 1%, draw 12%, Nashville SC 87%88' · 1–2 · Austin 1%, draw 11%, Nashville SC 88%89' · 1–3 · Austin 0%, draw 0%, Nashville SC 99%90' · 1–3 · Austin 0%, draw 0%, Nashville SC 100%90+1' · 1–3 · Austin 0%, draw 0%, Nashville SC 100%90+2' · 1–4 · Austin 0%, draw 0%, Nashville SC 100%90+3' · 1–4 · Austin 0%, draw 0%, Nashville SC 100%90+4' · 1–4 · Austin 0%, draw 0%, Nashville SC 100%90+5' · 1–4 · Austin 0%, draw 0%, Nashville SC 100%90+6' · 1–4 · Austin 0%, draw 0%, Nashville SC 100%

Last reading, 90+6': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Nashville SC 44% to win: they did.

  1. 30'Nashville SC: Reed Baker-Whiting 2072 +25*
  2. 37'Austin:Guilherme Biro 2012 −14*
  3. 45'Austin:Brendan Hines-Ike 1932 −11* for Jon Bell 1887 −9*
  4. 60'Austin:Christian Ramirez 1724 −15* for Myrto Uzuni 1934 −3
  5. 61'Austin:Besard Sabovic 1933 −9* for Jorge Alastuey 1352 −8*
  6. 67'Nashville SC:Elias Saad 2014 +24*
  7. 69'Nashville SC:Shakur Mohammed 1591 +18* for Elias Saad 2014 +24*
  8. 69'Austin:Przemyslaw Płacheta 1770 −9* for Mikkel Desler 1979 −14*
  9. 76'Nashville SC:Edvard Sandvik Tagseth 2047 −6* for Patrick Yazbek 2031 +4*
  10. 76'Nashville SC:Daniel Lovitz 1870 −11* for Andy Najar 1996 +25*
  11. 76'Austin:Brandon Vazquez 1969 −17* assist Facundo Daniel Torres Perez 2085 −47*
  12. 78'Nashville SC:Shakur Mohammed 1591 +18*
  13. 83'Nashville SC:Brian Schwake 2051 +5*
  14. 88'Nashville SC:Shakur Mohammed 1591 +18* assist Hany Mukhtar 2058 +24*
  15. 89'Nashville SC:josh bauer 1877 −8* for Cristian Espinoza 2035 +27*
  16. 90'Nashville SC:Bryan Acosta 1717 −12* for matthew corcoran 1996 +8*
  17. 90+1'Nashville SC:Hany Mukhtar 2058 +24* assist Shakur Mohammed 1591 +18*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-3Formations4-3-3
GB. Stuver1996−16*
DM. Desler1979−14*
DJ. Bell1887−9*
DGuilherme Biro2012−14*
MF. Torres2085−47*
MErvin Torres1764−8*
MIlie Sánchez1795−16*
MM. Uzuni1934−3
FJorge Alastuey1352−8*
FB. Vázquez1969−17*
FJ. Gallagher1936−10*
CD. Arnaud1692−8*
GB. Schwake2051+5*
DA. Najar1996+25*
DJ. Palacios2067+22*
DM. Woledzi2103+20*
DR. Baker-Whiting2072+25*
MM. Corcoran1996+8*
MP. Yazbek2031+4*
ME. Saad2014+24*
FC. Espinoza2035+27*
FS. Surridge2048+6*
FH. Mukhtar2058+24*
CB. Callaghan2076+14*
Before kick-off: 30% · 26% · 44%(Austin · draw · Nashville SC)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 1–4 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Austin €2.0M, Nashville SC €2.5M.
  • Austin were without 1 expected starter: J. Rosales (2006).
  • Largest team-Elo gap of MLS matchday 28: 147 points.
  • Nashville SC's expected eleven was in form: average +2.5 over 180 days.
  • Austin were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Austin

13th in MLS · 31 pts from 27

  • 27 SepDSan Diego 1875
  • 20 SepDFC Dallas 1861
  • 13 SepWVancouver Whitecaps 1821
  • 10 SepDColorado Rapids 1911
  • 6 SepDSan Jose Earthquakes 1869

Nashville SC

1st in MLS · 60 pts from 27

  • 27 SepWToronto FC 1996
  • 20 SepWChicago Fire 1994
  • 12 SepDInter Miami 1985
  • 9 SepLToronto FC 1994
  • 4 SepDNew York City FC 2017

Season outlook

From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Austin31 /2740.30%0%6%21st
Nashville SC60 /2771.299%100%0%1st
Austin
Nashville SC

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Major League Soccer

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

M. Uzuni
M. Uzuni

Austin · +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1936

J. Palacios
J. Palacios

Nashville SC · +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2046

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Davy Arnaud

Coach DNA: –

Brian Joseph Callaghan II

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Austin: low-volume (how Davy Arnaud plays) · Nashville SC: balanced profile (how Brian Joseph Callaghan II plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.