Primera División · Apertura - 23
Aurora vs Real Tomayapo
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 21:15 UTC
Aurora host Real Tomayapo on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Aurora 51%, draw 26%, Real Tomayapo 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Aurora €147K, Real Tomayapo €133K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Aurora goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Aurora 1435 · Real Tomayapo 1315
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Aurora · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1626
Real Tomayapo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.3 (Average) · Elo 1423
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Aurora
6th in Primera División · 31 pts from 22
- 17 OctLReal Oruro Bolivia Primera Division1391
- 11 OctDNacional Potosí Bolivia Primera Division1431
- 16 SepLGuabirá Bolivia Primera Division1469
- 11 SepWSan Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division1442
- 5 SepWGualberto Villarroel SJ Bolivia Primera Division1456
Real Tomayapo
15th in Primera División · 20 pts from 22
- 17 OctWGualberto Villarroel SJ Bolivia Primera Division1250
- 9 OctDSan Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division1306
- 17 SepLOriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division1299
- 14 SepLBolívar Bolivia Primera Division1308
- 6 SepLThe Strongest Bolivia Primera Division1277
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 31 /22 | 40.4 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 6th |
| Real Tomayapo | 20 /22 | 27.5 | 0% | 0% | 56% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Aurora: balanced profile (how David Diaz plays) · Real Tomayapo: balanced profile (how Jorge Rolando Alfonso Ávalos plays)