A-League · Regular Season - 4
Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 04:00 UTC · Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Auckland host Wellington Phoenix on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (A-League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Auckland 46%, draw 28%, Wellington Phoenix 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Auckland €542K, Wellington Phoenix €293K.
- A-League: M. Woud is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1804).
- Style contrast in discipline (A-League): Auckland rank #9 of 12, Wellington Phoenix #2.
- J. Oluwayemi, I. Hughes, D. Edwards, P. Retre, R. Najjarine, A. Rufer and I. Eze (Wellington Phoenix) have not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Auckland goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.8 pts
Team Elo: Auckland 1676 · Wellington Phoenix 1584
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; Wellington Phoenix from last season's line-ups (latest 24 April 2026).
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Auckland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1804
Wellington Phoenix · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 (Poor) · Elo 1534
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Auckland
1st in A-League · 3 pts from 1
- 17 OctWMelbourne City A-League1723
- 26 AugLAl-Ahli Jeddah FIFA Intercontinental Cup1709
- 23 MayWSydney A-League1748
- 15 MayWAdelaide United A-League1712
- 9 MayDAdelaide United A-League1719
Wellington Phoenix
2nd in A-League · 3 pts from 1
- 18 OctWMelbourne Victory A-League1602
- 24 AprLMacarthur A-League1562
- 18 AprWWestern Sydney Wanderers A-League1574
- 12 AprLMelbourne City A-League1576
- 5 AprWMelbourne Victory A-League1551
Season outlook
From the A-League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | 3 /1 | 44.2 | 39% | 80% | 2% | 1st |
| Wellington Phoenix | 3 /1 | 37.2 | 8% | 40% | 13% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Auckland: high-pressing · direct (how S. Corica plays) · Wellington Phoenix: low-volume (how Giancarlo Italiano plays)