A-League · Regular Season - 5
Auckland vs Melbourne Victory
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 04:00 UTC · Go Media Stadium, Auckland
Auckland host Melbourne Victory on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (A-League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Auckland 39%, draw 29%, Melbourne Victory 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Auckland €514K, Melbourne Victory €458K.
- A-League: M. Woud is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1767).
- Style contrast in dribbling (A-League): Auckland rank #10 of 12, Melbourne Victory #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Auckland goals first.
- 1–114%
- 2–18%
- 1–08%
- 1–28%
- 0–17%
- 0–07%
- Other scores48%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
Team Elo: Auckland 1644 · Melbourne Victory 1625
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 4 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Auckland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1767
Melbourne Victory · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1666
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Auckland
8th in A-League · 5 pts from 4
- 7 NovDWellington Phoenix A-League1674
- 30 OctDBrisbane Roar A-League1657
- 24 OctLWestern Sydney Wanderers A-League1725
- 17 OctWMelbourne City A-League1715
- 26 AugLAl-Ahli Jeddah FIFA Intercontinental Cup1701
Melbourne Victory
9th in A-League · 3 pts from 4
- 8 NovDAdelaide United A-League1627
- 4 NovLPersib Bandung AFC Cup1585
- 28 OctLPersib Bandung AFC Cup1580
- 24 OctDMelbourne City A-League1659
- 18 OctLWellington Phoenix A-League1667
Season outlook
From the A-League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | 5 /4 | 38.9 | 12% | 51% | 8% | 2nd |
| Melbourne Victory | 3 /4 | 35.4 | 4% | 29% | 16% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Auckland: high-pressing · direct (how Pedro Miguel de Barros Moreira plays) · Melbourne Victory: creative (how G. Savarese plays)