Liga Pro · Championship Group - 6
Aucas vs Independiente del Valle
Sun 8 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
Aucas host Independiente del Valle on Sun 8 Nov 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Aucas 24%, draw 27%, Independiente del Valle 49%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Aucas €367K, Independiente del Valle €963K.
- Liga Pro: A. Quintana is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1924).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Aucas goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–29%
- 0–08%
- 2–16%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Aucas 1589 · Independiente del Valle 1837
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Aucas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1553
Independiente del Valle · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1814
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Aucas
4th in Liga Pro · 50 pts from 30
- 17 OctDLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1609
- 10 OctLIndependiente del Valle Ecuador Liga Pro1590
- 19 SepLMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1622
- 12 SepDManta FC Ecuador Liga Pro1502
- 7 SepDBarcelona SC Ecuador Liga Pro1635
Independiente del Valle
1st in Liga Pro · 74 pts from 30
- 23 OctDUniversidad Catolica Ecuador Liga Pro1837
- 17 OctLMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1875
- 10 OctWAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1871
- 18 SepDFlamengo Copa Libertadores1859
- 13 SepWLibertad Ecuador Liga Pro1744
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aucas | 51 /33 | 58.4 | 0% | 32% | 0% | 5th |
| Independiente del Valle | 77 /32 | 86.7 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Aucas: balanced profile (how N. Araujo plays) · Independiente del Valle: possession-based (how Joaquin Papa plays)