Liga Pro · Championship Group - 4
Aucas vs Barcelona SC
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda, Quito
Aucas host Barcelona SC on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Liga Pro); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Aucas 37%, draw 29%, Barcelona SC 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Aucas €361K, Barcelona SC €407K.
- Home advantage makes Aucas the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Aucas goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Aucas 1588 · Barcelona SC 1645
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Aucas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1553
Barcelona SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1737
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Aucas
4th in Liga Pro · 50 pts from 30
- 17 OctDLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1609
- 10 OctLIndependiente del Valle Ecuador Liga Pro1590
- 19 SepLMacara Ecuador Liga Pro1622
- 12 SepDManta FC Ecuador Liga Pro1502
- 7 SepDBarcelona SC Ecuador Liga Pro1635
Barcelona SC
6th in Liga Pro · 44 pts from 30
- 18 OctDUniversidad Catolica Ecuador Liga Pro1629
- 11 OctLLDU de Quito Ecuador Liga Pro1652
- 13 SepDDelfin SC Ecuador Liga Pro1650
- 7 SepDAucas Ecuador Liga Pro1693
- 3 SepWIndependiente del Valle Ecuador Liga Pro1662
Season outlook
From the Liga Pro simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aucas | 51 /33 | 58.3 | 0% | 29% | 0% | 5th |
| Barcelona SC | 45 /32 | 53.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Aucas: balanced profile (how Norberto Carlos Araujo plays) · Barcelona SC: balanced profile (how Pablo Trobbiani plays)