Serie A · Regular Season - 34
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama
Wed 4 Nov 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Arena da Baixada, Curitiba
Atletico Paranaense host Vasco DA Gama on Wed 4 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atletico Paranaense 38%, draw 29%, Vasco DA Gama 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atletico Paranaense €1.9M, Vasco DA Gama €4.3M.
- Home advantage makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Style contrast in attacking (Série A): Atletico Paranaense rank #3 of 20, Vasco DA Gama #19.
- Vasco DA Gama's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.1 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atletico Paranaense goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Atletico Paranaense 1877 · Vasco DA Gama 1996
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico Paranaense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2003
Vasco DA Gama · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1988
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico Paranaense
3rd in Série A · 53 pts from 31
- 17 OctLPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1881
- 8 OctDAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1918
- 20 SepWBahia Brazil Serie A1893
- 12 SepDCoritiba Brazil Serie A1909
- 6 SepLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1896
Vasco DA Gama
15th in Série A · 35 pts from 30
- 18 OctLSao Paulo Brazil Serie A2010
- 14 OctWBoca Juniors Copa Sudamericana2010
- 10 OctDRemo Brazil Serie A1990
- 7 OctWBotafogo Brazil Serie A1992
- 19 SepWCoritiba Brazil Serie A1995
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 53 /31 | 61.6 | 0% | 48% | 0% | 4th |
| Vasco DA Gama | 35 /30 | 45.7 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atletico Paranaense: balanced profile (how Odair Hellmann plays) · Vasco DA Gama: balanced profile (how Pedro Emanuel plays)