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Serie A · Regular Season - 31

Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Palmeiras

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Arena da Baixada, Curitiba

Atletico Paranaense crestAtletico ParanaenseTeam 1848
0–2
Full time
HT 0–2
Palmeiras crestPalmeirasTeam 2190

Match story

Atletico Paranaense · draw · Palmeiras

Before kick-off: 23% · 27% · 50%

Live chances: Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 0%, Palmeiras 100% at 90+4'1' · 0–0 · Atletico Paranaense 23%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 50%2' · 0–0 · Atletico Paranaense 23%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 50%3' · 0–0 · Atletico Paranaense 23%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 50%4' · 0–0 · Atletico Paranaense 23%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 50%5' · 0–0 · Atletico Paranaense 23%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 50%6' · 0–0 · Atletico Paranaense 23%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 50%7' · 0–1 · Atletico Paranaense 11%, draw 19%, Palmeiras 69%8' · 0–1 · Atletico Paranaense 11%, draw 20%, Palmeiras 69%9' · 0–1 · Atletico Paranaense 11%, draw 20%, Palmeiras 69%10' · 0–1 · Atletico Paranaense 11%, draw 20%, Palmeiras 69%11' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 8%, Palmeiras 90%12' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 8%, Palmeiras 90%13' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 8%, Palmeiras 90%14' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 8%, Palmeiras 90%15' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 8%, Palmeiras 90%16' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 8%, Palmeiras 90%17' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 8%, Palmeiras 90%18' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 90%19' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 90%20' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 90%21' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%22' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%23' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%24' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%25' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%26' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%27' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%28' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%29' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%30' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%31' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%32' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%33' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 92%34' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 92%35' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 92%36' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 92%37' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 6%, Palmeiras 92%38' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 6%, Palmeiras 92%39' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 6%, Palmeiras 92%40' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 6%, Palmeiras 92%41' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 6%, Palmeiras 92%42' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 6%, Palmeiras 92%43' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 6%, Palmeiras 93%44' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 4%, draw 12%, Palmeiras 84%45' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 4%, draw 12%, Palmeiras 85%45+1' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 4%, draw 11%, Palmeiras 85%45+2' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 4%, draw 11%, Palmeiras 85%45+3' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 11%, Palmeiras 86%45+4' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 11%, Palmeiras 86%45+5' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 11%, Palmeiras 86%45+6' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 11%, Palmeiras 86%45+7' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 11%, Palmeiras 86%45+8' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 11%, Palmeiras 86%HT · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 11%, Palmeiras 86%47' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 11%, Palmeiras 86%48' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 11%, Palmeiras 86%49' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 10%, Palmeiras 87%50' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 10%, Palmeiras 87%51' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 10%, Palmeiras 87%52' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 3%, draw 10%, Palmeiras 88%53' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 10%, Palmeiras 88%54' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 9%, Palmeiras 88%55' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 9%, Palmeiras 89%56' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 9%, Palmeiras 89%57' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 8%, Palmeiras 90%58' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 8%, Palmeiras 90%59' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 8%, Palmeiras 90%60' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 8%, Palmeiras 91%61' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 2%, draw 8%, Palmeiras 91%62' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 91%63' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 92%64' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 92%65' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 7%, Palmeiras 92%66' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 6%, Palmeiras 93%67' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 6%, Palmeiras 93%69' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 6%, Palmeiras 94%70' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 5%, Palmeiras 94%71' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 5%, Palmeiras 94%73' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 5%, Palmeiras 95%74' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 4%, Palmeiras 95%75' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 1%, draw 4%, Palmeiras 95%76' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 4%, Palmeiras 96%77' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 4%, Palmeiras 96%78' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 3%, Palmeiras 96%79' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 3%, Palmeiras 97%80' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 3%, Palmeiras 97%81' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 3%, Palmeiras 97%82' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 2%, Palmeiras 98%83' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 2%, Palmeiras 98%84' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 2%, Palmeiras 98%85' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 2%, Palmeiras 98%86' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 1%, Palmeiras 99%87' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 1%, Palmeiras 99%88' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 1%, Palmeiras 99%89' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 1%, Palmeiras 99%90' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 1%, Palmeiras 99%90+1' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 0%, Palmeiras 100%90+2' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 0%, Palmeiras 100%90+3' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 0%, Palmeiras 100%90+4' · 0–2 · Atletico Paranaense 0%, draw 0%, Palmeiras 100%

Last reading, 90+4': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Palmeiras 50% to win: they did.

  1. 6'Palmeiras:Maurício Magalhães Prado 2231 +13 assist José Manuel López 2204 +8
  2. 9'Atletico Paranaense:Gilberto 1884 −8
  3. 10'Palmeiras:Joaquín Piquerez 2243 +25
  4. 22'Palmeiras:Andreas Pereira 2167 +3
  5. 35'Palmeiras:Joaquín Piquerez 2243 +25
  6. 43'Palmeiras:Andreas Pereira 2167 +3
  7. 45'Atletico Paranaense:jorge rivaldo 1623 0 for Antonio Feliphe Costa Silva 1833 −8*
  8. 45'Palmeiras:Marlon Freitas 2137 +4 for Maurício Magalhães Prado 2231 +13
  9. 45'Atletico Paranaense:Claudinho 1794 0 for João Victor Machado Cruz 1826 0
  10. 52'Atletico Paranaense:Bruno Zapelli 1891 −5 for Claudinho 1794 0
  11. 57'Atletico Paranaense:Leonardo Caetano Silva 1790 −1
  12. 65'Palmeiras:Jhon Arias 2217 +1 for José Manuel López 2204 +8
  13. 67'Atletico Paranaense:chiqueti 1516 −8* for Gilberto 1884 −8
  14. 72'Palmeiras:Emiliano Martínez 2120 +2 for Lucas Evangelista 2044 +12
  15. 72'Palmeiras:Arthur Gabriel 2042 +4 for Ramon Sosa 2154 +10
  16. 87'Atletico Paranaense:Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio 1746 −8* for Leonardo Caetano Silva 1790 −1
  17. 90'Palmeiras:Luis Benedetti 1744 −7* for Bruno Fuchs 2145 +31

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations3-4-2-1
GMycael18260
DArthur Dias1968−30
DJ. Aguirre1986−21*
DFelipinho1833−8*
MGilberto1884−8
MJádson1865−8
MLuiz Gustavo1732−14
MS. Mendoza1869−9
MLeozinho1790−1
MJoão Cruz18260
FK. Viveros2003−13
COdair Hellmann1911−11
GCarlos Miguel2234+28
DMurilo2210+9
DBruno Fuchs2145+31
DA. Barboza2150+37
MKhellven2177+12
MAndreas Pereira2167+3
MLucas Evangelista2044+12
MJ. Piquerez2243+25
MMaurício2231+13
MR. Sosa2154+10
FJ. López2204+8
CAbel Ferreira2214+20
Before kick-off: 23% · 27% · 50%(Atletico Paranaense · draw · Palmeiras)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–2 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Atletico Paranaense €1.7M, Palmeiras €7.8M.
  • Palmeiras were without 3 expected starters: G. Gómez (2179), A. Giay (2226) and Vitor Roque (2187).
  • Palmeiras' expected eleven was in form: average +4.0 over 180 days.
  • All 11 of Palmeiras' expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Atletico Paranaense

3rd in Série A · 53 pts from 30

  • 8 OctDAtletico-MG 1918
  • 20 SepWBahia 1893
  • 12 SepDCoritiba 1909
  • 6 SepLCruzeiro 1896
  • 30 AugDFluminense 1913

Palmeiras

2nd in Série A · 63 pts from 30

  • 15 OctWFluminense 2155
  • 11 OctWCorinthians 2153
  • 9 OctWBahia 2128
  • 20 SepDGremio 2152
  • 16 SepLLDU de Quito 2161

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Atletico Paranaense53 /3062.80%59%0%3rd
Palmeiras63 /3078.432%100%0%2nd
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Arthur Dias
Arthur Dias

Atletico Paranaense · +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1998

Murilo
Murilo

Palmeiras · +8.0 (Good) · Elo 2201

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Odair Hellmann

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira

Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Atletico Paranaense: balanced profile (how Odair Hellmann plays) · Palmeiras: shot-heavy (how Abel Fernando Moreira Ferreira plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.