Serie A · Regular Season - 29
Atletico Paranaense 2–2 Atletico-MG
Thu 8 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Arena da Baixada, Curitiba
Atletico ParanaenseTeam 1870Atletico-MGTeam 2000We gave Atletico Paranaense 37% to win: it ended in a draw.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 37% · 29% · 34%(Atletico Paranaense · draw · Atletico-MG)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Atletico Paranaense €2.1M, Atletico-MG €3.1M.
- Atletico Paranaense were without 3 expected starters: Dantas (1861), J. Aguirre (2008) and G. Benavídez (2000).
- Home advantage made Atletico Paranaense the favourite: it added 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico Paranaense
3rd in Série A · 49 pts from 28
- 20 SepWBahia Brazil Serie A1893
- 12 SepDCoritiba Brazil Serie A1909
- 6 SepLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1896
- 30 AugDFluminense Brazil Serie A1913
- 24 AugWBotafogo Brazil Serie A1892
Atletico-MG
7th in Série A · 43 pts from 28
- 3 OctWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2024
- 19 SepDChapecoense-SC Brazil Serie A1977
- 16 SepWSantos Copa Sudamericana2025
- 12 SepWFluminense Brazil Serie A1955
- 9 SepLSantos Copa Sudamericana2036
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 49 /28 | 61.9 | 0% | 47% | 0% | 4th |
| Atletico-MG | 43 /28 | 58.3 | 0% | 19% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico Paranaense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2020
Atletico-MG · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2070
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atletico Paranaense: balanced profile (how Odair Hellmann plays) · Atletico-MG: possession-based (how Eduardo Rodrigo Domínguez plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.