Canadian Premier League · Group Stage
Atlético Ottawa 1–2 Forge
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · TD Place Stadium, Ottawa
Atlético OttawaTeam 1524ForgeTeam 1604- G. Antinoro 90+7' (pen)
We gave Forge 36% to win: they did.
- 15'Levonte Johnson –Forge:Levonte Johnson –
- Diego Gutiérrez –19'Atlético Ottawa:Diego Gutiérrez –
- 33'Anthony Aromatario –Forge:Anthony Aromatario –
- Emiliano·García –40'Atlético Ottawa:Emiliano·García –
- 54'Levonte Johnson – assist Lucas Cavallini –Forge:Levonte Johnson – assist Lucas Cavallini –
- 55'Antoine Batisse –Forge:Antoine Batisse –
- Diego Gutiérrez –61'Atlético Ottawa:Diego Gutiérrez –
- G. Antinoro – for Kamron Habibullah –64'Atlético Ottawa:G. Antinoro – for Kamron Habibullah –
- Jean-Aniel Assi – for Tim Arnaud –65'Atlético Ottawa:Jean-Aniel Assi – for Tim Arnaud –
- 74'Hoce Massunda – for M. Bourgeois –Forge:Hoce Massunda – for M. Bourgeois –
- Reinaldo Abraham – for Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau –74'Atlético Ottawa:Reinaldo Abraham – for Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau –
- 74'Ben Paton – for Levonte Johnson –Forge:Ben Paton – for Levonte Johnson –
- 74'Ismael Oketokoun Hassane – for Lucas Cavallini –Forge:Ismael Oketokoun Hassane – for Lucas Cavallini –
- Ralph Khoury – for Emiliano·García –74'Atlético Ottawa:Ralph Khoury – for Emiliano·García –
- 77'Tristan Borges – for Noah Jensen –Forge:Tristan Borges – for Noah Jensen –
- 77'aghilas sadek – for Anthony Aromatario –Forge:aghilas sadek – for Anthony Aromatario –
- Juan Castro – for Ballou Tabla –87'Atlético Ottawa:Juan Castro – for Ballou Tabla –
- G. Antinoro – (pen.)90+7'Atlético Ottawa:G. Antinoro – (pen.)
Before kick-off (provisional): 35% · 29% · 36%(Atlético Ottawa · draw · Forge)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–2 had 8%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atlético Ottawa €210K, Forge €244K.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Canadian Premier League): Atlético Ottawa ranked #4 of 7, Forge #3.
- Forge were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atlético Ottawa
3rd in Canadian Premier League · 43 pts from 26
- 11 OctWPacific FC Canada Premier League1493
- 30 SepWCavalry FC Canada Premier League1444
- 26 SepWHFX Wanderers FC Canada Premier League1393
- 20 SepLSupra du Quebec Canada Premier League1403
- 12 SepLForge Canada Premier League1450
Forge
2nd in Canadian Premier League · 54 pts from 26
- 12 OctWYork United Canada Premier League1585
- 7 OctWPacific FC Canada Premier League1587
- 3 OctDHFX Wanderers FC Canada Premier League1580
- 26 SepDVancouver FC Canada Premier League1559
- 19 SepDCavalry FC Canada Premier League1601
Season outlook
From the Canadian Premier League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Ottawa | 43 /26 | 45.6 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 3rd |
| Forge | 54 /26 | 57.3 | 25% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 8th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atlético Ottawa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1668
Forge · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1765
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based · low-block
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atlético Ottawa: balanced profile (how Gustavo José da Silva Leal plays) · Forge: balanced profile (how Bobby Smyrniotis plays)