Primera A · Clausura - 19
Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas
Thu 12 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Atletico Nacional host Once Caldas on Thu 12 Nov 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Atletico Nacional 57%, draw 24%, Once Caldas 18%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Atletico Nacional €651K, Once Caldas €432K.
- Primera A: F. Armani is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1854).
- Once Caldas are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Atletico Nacional goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Atletico Nacional 1808 · Once Caldas 1683
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico Nacional · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1862
Once Caldas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Average) · Elo 1710
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Atletico Nacional
1st in Primera A · 40 pts from 19
- 25 OctWIndependiente Medellin Colombia Primera A1800
- 23 OctWDeportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A1769
- 20 OctLCucuta Colombia Primera A1766
- 17 OctWChico Colombia Primera A1776
- 8 OctDDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1781
Once Caldas
5th in Primera A · 33 pts from 19
- 25 OctDDeportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A1710
- 21 OctDMillonarios Colombia Primera A1707
- 18 OctWIndependiente Medellin Colombia Primera A1678
- 10 OctWLlaneros Colombia Primera A1662
- 4 OctDInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1666
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 40 /19 | 47.5 | 98% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Once Caldas | 33 /19 | 37.6 | <1% | 48% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Atletico Nacional: creative · shot-heavy (how L. González plays) · Once Caldas: balanced profile (how H. Herrera plays)